Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week) | Manifold

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)

12

1kṀ3697

Dec 31

46%

Antropic

32%

DeepSeek

23%

Other

20%

Meta

10%

Alibaba

7%

Mistral

7%

NexusFlow

Resolved

YES

Google

Resolved

YES

xAI

For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.

see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024

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@LCBOB resolves YES, xAI too https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-1-in-lmsys-chatb

@mods please resolve

Style Control enabled or disabled?

it is disabled by default, i think it would be pretty unfair if this was anything other than based on the default viewing

@Bayesian agree, + the correlational statistics is suspicious and seems gameable

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