Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
14
1kṀ6292
Dec 31
14%
DeepSeek
10%
Meta
7%
NexusFlow
Resolved
YES
Mistral
Resolved
YES
Google
Resolved
YES
Antropic
Resolved
YES
xAI
Resolved
YES
Alibaba
Resolved
YES
Other

For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.

see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024

mod edit - @Stralor Nov 18 25:

default settings (style control disabled)

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bought Ṁ300 YES

@mods creator is inactive since ~10 months back.

Unfortunately, they never replied whether style control should be removed or not.
Regardless, Anthropic can resolve to YES already. Unless we just N/A the whole thing, with just 12 traders?

@HenriThunberg resolved Anthropic. I think we can leave this open and just make a call. Sounds like style control off is the default so we'll go with that simpler version

bought Ṁ50 NO

@Stralor well then, Mistral, Alibaba, and Baidu (and many more) have been above OpenAI for weeks – so the top 3 % results can resolve YES as well then.
Hard to get a screenshot of the style control off board, unfortunately.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@LCBOB resolves YES

@mods please resolve

Style Control enabled or disabled?

it is disabled by default, i think it would be pretty unfair if this was anything other than based on the default viewing

@Bayesian agree, + the correlational statistics is suspicious and seems gameable

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