Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week) | Manifold

Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)

12

1kṀ3717

Dec 31

46%

Antropic

25%

DeepSeek

20%

Meta

16%

Other

10%

Alibaba

7%

Mistral

7%

NexusFlow

Resolved

YES

Google

Resolved

YES

xAI

For any company to resolve YES, they must achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI’s best model on the leaderboards https://lmarena.ai/.

see https://manifold.markets/Soli/which-companies-will-achieve-a-high?play=true for 2024

Technical AI Timelines

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Sort by:

@LCBOB resolves YES, xAI too https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-1-in-lmsys-chatb

@mods please resolve

Style Control enabled or disabled?

it is disabled by default, i think it would be pretty unfair if this was anything other than based on the default viewing

@Bayesian agree, + the correlational statistics is suspicious and seems gameable

People are also trading

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

Related questions

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of August? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of September? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which company has best AI model end of July? (Chatbot Arena Leaderboard)

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will a company other than OpenAI, xAI, and Google top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?

Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2028?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2027?

Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2026?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy