Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?
Basic
0
2026
50%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:
Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:
This question will resolve as Yes if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard has OpenAI as its organization.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena in 2025?
Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?
54% chance
Which companies will achieve a higher ELO rating than OpenAI on ChatBot Arena in 2025? ( >= week)
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?
34% chance
Will OpenAI exist in Jan 2027?
81% chance
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will OpenAI still be considered one of the top players in AI by end of 2025
78% chance
Until what date will an Google model hold the top position in the Chatbot Arena? (>=week)