Will OpenAI top the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard on December 31, 2025?

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From the ACX 2025 Prediction Contest:

Will resolve according to the Metaculus resolution:

This question will resolve as Yes if, on December 31, 2025, the entry with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category of the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard has OpenAI as its organization.

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Look, this market, it's a joke, a total disaster. Less than 3%? Sad! OpenAI, they're good, really good, I know good. But when @ManiFed Fintech comes out, believe me, it's going to be so phenomenal, so great, you won't even believe it. Everyone will be saying, 'Wow, that was the best financial tech, maybe ever.' And this Chatbot Arena? It's going to be absolutely blown away. We're talking America First in AI, folks. Mark my words.