Resolution is based on the chatbot arena LLM leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), specifically the company with the highest Arena Score in the Overall category, without style control or show deprecated, at the end of December 31th, 2025 11:59PM ET.
In the case of a tie, all companies tied for 1st place resolve to equal probability, such that they sum to 100%.
See also:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-the-best-ai-model
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttoimage-SO0uN6suuS
/Bayesian/who-will-have-the-best-texttovideo-AtZ0CdIc8Z
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-computer
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-vision-ai-en
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-search-ai-mo
Previous months:
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-I0QsydsZuz
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-0CRdhqptRl
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-uIgZPlOt5d
/Bayesian/which-company-has-best-ai-model-end-A88UsyhdZz
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided a direct link to the specific leaderboard view that will be used for resolution: https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
This confirms the market will resolve based on the "Without Style Control" setting as specified in the original description.
1,000People are also trading
@clementdupOz just FYI, the reason I only bet a little, is because the description of this market specifies "without style control". When style control is off, 2.5 pro still wins. and 3.0 is likely to be a lot higher.
@clementdupOz they now provide a direct link to the "Without Style Control" setting. See here for the current ranking the market resolution will be based on:
https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
@CampbellHutcheson they goodharted it with gemini 2.5 pro. tbh i could see them not doing that anymore and gemini 2.5 pro staying #1 even after gemini 3 is released