Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena in 2025?
38
1.1kṀ7388
Dec 31
38%
Anthropic
27%
Alibaba
26%
DeepSeek
19%
Meta
3%
Cohere
Resolved
YES
OpenAI
Resolved
YES
Google
Resolved
YES
xAI

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

  • Update 2024-28-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:

    • All companies that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025.

  • Update 2024-30-12 (PST): - At the top is defined as having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard. (AI summary of creator comment)

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bought Ṁ10 YES

Similar market for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-company-other-than-openai-xa

@jim happy new year, this is a YES

Resolves to a single winner? Top 3? What are the criteria?

@ProjectVictory resolves to all that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025.

@jim But what is defined as "at the top"? Top 1? Top 2? Top 3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 100?

@komplexkonjugat Having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard.

bought Ṁ50 NO

@jim so it will only resolve to more than one company if two or more models from different companies have exactly the same Elo?

@komplexkonjugat

@komplexkonjugat It's at any point in 2025, so there could be multiple leaders at different times.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that was the part I was missing, thanks.

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