Which Companies will top Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
54
1.2kแน€11k
Dec 31
9%
Moonshot
8%
Meta
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Anthropic
7%
Alibaba
1.6%
Cohere
Resolved
YES
OpenAI
Resolved
YES
Google
Resolved
YES
xAI

https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard

  • All companies that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025

  • At the top is defined as having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard

/jim/which-companies-will-top-chatbot-ar-RQp5CdN0uE

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/jim/which-companies-will-top-chatbot-ar-h06UutOO8y

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bought แน€100 NO

Anthropic seems way too high here, with Claude 3.7 currently in 20th place on the leaderboard, well over 100 points behind the leaders.

bought แน€10 YES

Similar market for arbitrage: https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-company-other-than-openai-xa

@jim happy new year, this is a YES

Resolves to a single winner? Top 3? What are the criteria?

@ProjectVictory resolves to all that have a model at the top of the leaderboard at any point in 2025.

@jim But what is defined as "at the top"? Top 1? Top 2? Top 3? Top 5? Top 10? Top 100?

@komplexkonjugat Having the highest Elo score on the leaderboard.

bought แน€50 NO

@jim so it will only resolve to more than one company if two or more models from different companies have exactly the same Elo?

@komplexkonjugat

@komplexkonjugat It's at any point in 2025, so there could be multiple leaders at different times.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 that was the part I was missing, thanks.

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