Will we have an open-source model better than GPT-4-Turbo before 2025?
Basic
28
755
2025
54%
chance

Currently, near the end of 2023, the chatbot arena leaderboard is topped by GPT-4-Turbo. The license column of the leaderboard marks this LLM as "proprietary".

This question resolves YES if, at the end of 2024, there is a model on the leaderboard which ranks higher than GPT-4-Turbo, but which is open-source. This means that model weights/other code for the model should be available for public download and possible to run, given a powerful-enough computer.

The Elo rating of the highest ranking open source model will be compared to the Elo rating of GPT-4-Turbo on the close date. If GPT-4-Turbo is no longer listed, then the Elo rating of the highest ranking open source model will be compared to 1217, the current Elo rating of GPT-4-Turbo as of market creation.

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