Chatbot Arena Leaderboard or iterations/new versions of it as creator sees fit. If the project is altogether abandoned with no equivalent, the answers that have not yet resolved YES will resolve NO at EOY unless some replacement appears.

If multiple shared #1 ranks, as has been the case in the past, any of those positions count.

If there are no longer ranked numbers, only top spot/ELO would count. If same ELO, but second spot for some trivial/irrelevant reason, still resolves YES.

Answer resolves YES immediately when an update has been confirmed, no matter what duration it stays in top.

Any AI that hasn't been #1 before during 2025, resolves to NO at the end of the year.

I will not trade in this market, resolution might get messy through mergers/acquisitions, changes to the leaderboard, etc.

Let me know if you want to see improvements to criteria.

See same market but for top 10 below:

/HenriThunberg/who-will-ever-rank-top-10-in-lmsys

• Update 2025-02-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification Added:

  • The resolution criteria now explicitly include scenarios where OpenAI retakes the lead after January 2025.

  • Such an event will count toward a confirmed update and will trigger an immediate resolution under the market rules.