Will Eliezer Yudkowsky create a market on Manifold before September?

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resolved Aug 8

Resolved

YES

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves NO on close if Eliezer has not yet created a market.

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I'd be willing to bet more if I knew your confirmation criteria. I'd personally want a confirmation from his official Twitter account (or equivalent, e.g., LessWrong); however, I'd trust your word if you confirmed it through a private Twitter DM. I don't know about trusting 'him' on Discord -- I don't know much about his presence there and how established it is.

Relevant? https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1556475620015501314

Should probably resolve

https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-was-proposed-capital-gains-tax

@jack Don't we have to confirm that it's really him?

E.g., this is probably not really him: https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/100496/

predicted YES

@EliezerYudkowsky can you post something to allow confirmation that it's you?

@jack Presumably, if this is a public profile posting a market that he wants feedback on, we should predict a Tweet.

@AndrewG Will wait for confirmation!

@SneakySly sounds good!

predicted YES

@SneakySly That's the real Eliezer, I talked to him on Discord.

predicted YES

@SneakySly I can confirm that the email tied to @EliezerYudkowsky is the actual Eliezer's email, and would resolve this yes

@Austin Good enough for me!

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Will Sam Harris create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

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Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Stefan Schubert create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Related questions

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Vitalik Buterin create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by the end of 2024?

Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Elon Musk create a market on Manifold before the end of 2030?

Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Sam Harris create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Stefan Schubert create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?