Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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2028
70%
chance

Robin Hanson, economist at George Mason University.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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This one seems especially likely as 1) we've spoken with Robin before over videochat, and 2) @dreev, another Manifold power user and investor, is friends and coauthors with Robin!

@Austin I bet Robin would have some fantastic markets!