Will Bryan Caplan create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
22
75
1k
2028
46%
chance

Bryan Caplan, economist at George Mason University.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

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Manifold in the wild: A Tweet by Carson Gale

@bryan_caplan There is also an existing market on whether you will create a market on Manifold :) traders would love to bet on questions you care about! https://manifold.markets/CarsonGale/will-bryan-caplan-create-a-market-o?r=Q2Fyc29uR2FsZQ