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Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Basic
16
Ṁ3072028
64%
chance
1D
1W
1M
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Erik Hoel, the scientist and author.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
Get Ṁ600 play money
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