Will Erik Hoel create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
16
474
1k
2028
64%
chance

Erik Hoel, the scientist and author.

This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations will become Manifold users and create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.

To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.

Get Ṁ600 play money