Washington state's ESSB 5096 (RCW 82.87) creates a 7% tax on capital gains above $250,000. This was challenged in court, struck down by a superior court judge as contrary to the state's constitution, and is presently being appealed to the state supreme court.
This question resolves YES if the measure is struck down by the state supreme court, and NO if the supreme court rules it constitutional. The market also resolves YES if the legislature or a ballot measure strikes down the measure. The market resolves NO if the capital gains tax goes into actual effect before end of 2022. If none of these events occur before the end of 2022, the market is invalid.
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@EliezerYudkowsky I think N/A is probably the best resolution.
The clause that is trickiest is:
The market resolves NO if the capital gains tax goes into actual effect before end of 2022.
This is complicated because my understanding is that the tax will have been in effect in 2022 if the Supreme Court decides it is constitutional, and the tax will retroactively not have been in effect in 2022 if they decide it's unconstitutional. See https://dor.wa.gov/taxes-rates/other-taxes/capital-gains-tax which states that
As a result, the online system will be made available to taxpayers to report and pay the tax. The system is targeted to go live in February 2023. If the Court eventually finds the statute to be unconstitutional, any tax payments received will be promptly refunded with interest.
And:
The tax takes effect on Jan. 1, 2022, and the first payments are due on or before April 18, 2023.
I guess maybe this uncertainty means it didn't go "into actual effect", but the wording is somewhat ambiguous. I would consider either of these options reasonable:
N/A resolution
Leave the market unresolved until the Supreme Court decision settles whether it was in effect or not during 2022.
Looks like the Supreme Court won't hear it until 2023, in which case, as I understand it, the market is likely to resolve N/A. Revised market: https://manifold.markets/EliezerYudkowsky/will-wa-tax-capital-gains-during-20
The supreme court is in the process of hearing the case. It's case number 1007698 and you can follow along here: https://dw.courts.wa.gov/index.cfm?fa=home.casesearch&terms=accept&flashform=0&tab=clj
Ballot measure isn't gonna happen: https://www.nwprogressive.org/weblog/2022/06/mark-funk-admits-that-initiative-to-overturn-capital-gains-tax-on-the-wealthy-is-kaput.html