Will Stefan Schubert create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
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70%
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Stefan Schubert, researcher at the LSE.
This is one of a series of markets regarding whether select individuals or organizations that I follow will create at least one market by the end of 2027 (~5 years). The time period is intentionally long, as these markets measure both (i) the propensity of the given person/organization to join Manifold, and (ii) Manifold's anticipated adoption by the public over time.
To resolve positively, I must be reasonably confident that the Manifold account really is the entity they purport to be.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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