What are examples of clear wins prediction markets have had?
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I've been speaking to some journalists, and it seems very important that we build a page that shows case studies of cherry picked events to build a track record of our site predicting events better than mainstream news/traditional forecasts (eg polls). We want to start proving prediction market accuracy through evidence (before we relied a lot on the theoretical backing of the mechanisms in our branding).

Eg. something became true and we predicted a higher probability than most news.

Even if they don't seem that statistically significant, still post them. The calibration and stats already show that overall we are accurate, but journalists and more casual viewers just want specific examples they can point to.

I will vary bounty awards based on how strong I feel the evidence is and how likely I am to include it in our track record page.

Feel free to also link to prediction market wins outside of Manifold Markets. Although I will prioritise wins of particular markets on our site.

Some examples I am already aware of vaguely, but may still give bounties if you do a good job at describing them in more detail:

-Predicting FTX implosion and SBF arrest related things

-Predicting Ukraine invasion related things

-2022 midterms

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I'd focus on markets that were correct for a long time before the event happened, and were things you could not have easily found out from reading news headlines that far in advance. These are markets that condense expert knowledge based on a dozen little pieces of evidence, none of which are worthy of a headline themselves until the thing is about to happen.

Some possible examples:


Eg. something became true and we predicted a higher probability than most news.

This seems hard to demonstrate when the news isn't predicting probabilities in the first place. It seems like the best chance is to find a case when authorities said "no need to worry about x" and then x happens.

…AI letter market??

https://manifold.markets/MilfordHammerschmidt/did-the-idf-just-now-blow-up-a-hosp?r=VkFQT1I

Did the IDF just blow up a hospital in Gaza?
4% chance. If the answer is unclear, I will resolve it to my best guess of the median informed observers' subjective probability based on all reliable sources. Referring to the following attack: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/diplomats-renew-calls-gaza-aid-iran-warns-israel-2023-10-16/ Edit (Oct 17, 5:32 PM): A more extensive description of the resolution criteria is forthcoming now that this market is getting more activity; the actual outcome will of course stay the same, and I will be resolving the market in the spirit of the question. Oct 18, 12PM: Some notes on specific questions in the comment section: This is essentially a market about who launched the attack. If Israel intercepted a missile over the hospital and it landed tragically, that won't count as Israel blowing up the hospital for the purposes of this market. "Reliable sources" includes both reliable primary and secondary sources. I will be interpreting all of the evidence I can to make a decision, not just taking the word of particular media outlets. I will also be evaluating (with a grain of salt) any released evidence or assessments from the IDF, USA, and Gaza, taking into account that these are biased parties and they may be lying or otherwise not giving us the full story. Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with. If I personally have some galaxy brain interpretation of the evidence that I don't think Average Joe Rationalist or disinterested manifold users would endorse, and that interpretation hasn't appeared anywhere in the media and is just my invention, I'll leave that at the door and stick to the apparent facts of the case. I am punting final judgement for now, but I will probably not be resolving this question NO merely because it turns out that the attack hit the hospital's parking lot instead of the hospital itself. That seems to me like the sort of nitpicky resolution judgement that hurts prediction markets' ability to inform others, given the part of the description where I elaborate that I'm referring to the specific attack reported in the media at the time, and given the fact that I and the betters and the people who saw this market on Twitter read the market probablity as asking who was responsible for the reported attack.

I am not sure if this meets the criteria, but I personally found it difficult to get information on this event, but manifold seems to have been very helpful to me in this case.

I was very impressed by the Trump arrest market. I would have put it at ~10% or less but the market was consistently around 35% (iirc). I’m not sure if hindsight bias has already made that seem less impressive to journalists but i would bet that the common consensus would have been strongly that he never would be arrested.

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The Gaza hospital tragedy was covered better than by mainstream media. Even if we exclude NYT as outlier.

A bit early to say but it seems like the markets about the Gaza hospital explosion such as this one reacted in a very accurate and quick way to the news. While the media was still showing very confusing headlines this was showing people a good estimate of the probability of what happened.

Thanks for all the answers thus far! I'll look through them all tonight (in about 6 hours) and award ~50% of the bounty among answers!

Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)
Resolved YES. Some of Joe Biden's lawyers discovered in his Delaware home some classified documents he kept from Obama's presidency. Biden's team returned the documents and claims it was an accident. However, Kevin McCarthy called for the launch of an investigation. Here's the Wikipedia article: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_classified_documents_incident Resolves YES if this whole situation is largely forgotten by the media and the popular zeitgeist 3 months from today (on April 14th) and NO otherwise. N/A if it's especially ambiguous. This is a subjective market, but I'll do my best to resolve fairly. Conservative media outlets will be weighted modestly: if liberal/mainstream media stops covering it but it's a very frequent talking point on Fox News, for example, this will probably resolve NO, but YES if it's only an occasional Fox talking point. Other factors I may consider include: level of awareness among people I know (including those who don't follow politics), level of conversation on Twitter, and number of Manifold markets made on the subject. I will not bet on this market unless I feel it is very mispriced. General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion. Feb 3, 7:00am: Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? → Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten in 3 months? (on April 14)

This was startlingly accurate, esp. as compared to the markets for other months.

Will the US debt ceiling be raised by the end of May 2023?
Resolved NO. Experts and government sources agree that the "x date" where the US government cannot pay what it owes without raising, abolishing or circumventing the debt ceiling is coming up in the coming months. At the time of writing, Manifold users agree that the debt ceiling will amost certainly be raised - see @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised This is one of a series of markets as to when in 2023 (if at all) the debt ceiling will be raised: @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-4dfbab873f7b @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-bb50b544604c @/jack/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-61f1f8a13eb3 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-6aa9483db108 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-5ce35cf731f8 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-ca2e2f5724f5 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-3d5bcf7c60a2 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-9a9422678ab4 @/SimonGrayson/will-the-us-debt-ceiling-be-raised-fcb9293c90bc (Manifold have added a M$10,000 liquidity subsidy to the June market as part of adding it to the Manifold showcase so there's a big profit to be made there if you think that the odds are wrong!) If the debt ceiling is raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity), this market resolves to YES. If the debt ceiling is circumvented (eg. by minting a trillion dollar coin) or the government decides to ignore it and continue issuing debt past the debt ceiling limit, that does not count as raising it. If the government hits the debt ceiling, circumvents it or defaults on the debt but still raises the debt ceiling by the end of May, this market resolves to YES. Update 31st May - just to clarify a couple of points which have been discussed in the comments: "By the end of May" means before the end of 31st May, Washington DC time. So if the bill currently being discussed is passed by the House and Senate and is signed into law by the President by 23:59 on 31st May, this would resolve to YES. Under the current plan, the debt ceiling will be suspended until January 2025 (rather than being raised to a specific figure) as part of Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023. This would count as being "raised or abolished (ie. raised to infinity)" as per the wording of this market. I've also put up a few markets on what happens next with the Fiscal Responsibility Act: @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c92aa58d0186 @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-94efb856d92a @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-19de3ce890f7 @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-c597c4aa7e4b @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-d229c4a1edca @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-2d2c27b34f65 @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-6160f1d68aba @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-ee0f36977d4f @/SimonGrayson/bidenmccarthy-debt-ceiling-deal-wil-764c416156e8

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Not Manifold, but this market on Polymarket correctly predicted the Covid-19 wave before the actual cases peaked.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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