Did Israel bomb al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in Gaza?

Question

Today (17/10) a hospital in Gaza was bombed, causing the death of at least 500 people. Hamas blames Israel and Israel blames a misfire of the Islamic Jihad.

This market will resolve 6 months according to a review of international media sources. I will be the arbiter, so I will not be betting on this market, but I am welcoming discussion and I will make an effort to make a resolution that is as broadly aggreable as possible.

This market will resolve to one of 5 options

YES - If there is a consensus that Israel did it.

75% - If there is significantly more evidence that Israel did it than that they didn't.

50% - If there is still no available independently verifiable evidence (unverified claims from Israel or Hamas don't count) or no clarity as to who did it.

25% - If there is significantly more evidence that it is not Israel who did it.

NO - If there is a consensus that it is not Israel who did it.

Resolving YES or NO would also require a consensus of Manifolders, but I am intentionally leaving what this means up to interpretation. This is done in order to avoid controversial resolutions, but the more important consensus required for YES or NO is that of experts.

Full disclosure - I am Israeli, but I don't support many of my government's actions, so I don't think I'm really biased here. I will do my best to keep an open mind, discuss with the community, and stick to facts.

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

No — resolved on May 12, 2024 by Manifold Markets prediction market.