Will Jimmy Carter be alive on April 1?

Plus

304

Ṁ77k

resolved Apr 2

Resolved

YES

ALL

Same as this market, but with a longer timeline:

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Jimmy Carter

Get

1,000

and

3.00

28 Comments

243 Holders

936 Trades

Sort by:

predicted YES

This market got so out of whack that I broke my informal rule and took a position! I'll be waiting a couple days to resolve to make sure there's no late-breaking news.

(And in the meantime, I'm broke lol. A total of M$30 liquid...)

Jimmy Carter, oh what a man!
Will he survive? That's the plan.
He's tough as nails, that much is clear,
April 1st? He'll still be here.

People putting limit orders for yes doesn’t seem so smart. His death will cause an immediate market crash and you’re gonna be filling limit orders most likely after he’s already fidd

predicted NO

@NGK You're going to feel so silly when news sites misclick and post the article early 😭

predicted NO

@Gen Honestly if that happens I’ll take a fat L. They’re playing a high risk game if that’s their goal 💀

predicted YES

@NGK those limit orders would have caught destiny's big sell and made a handy profit, it turns out!

predicted YES

watch the movie Lucky (2017)

This might be a moon shot, 15% of hospice patients can live up to 6 months and most die within the first 3 weeks. We are over 3 weeks, get hype for the Jimmy Carter minority.

predicted YES

@Haws I am not from the US and I never cared as much for any US president living as now. Live, Jimmy, bring me sweet mana.

predicted YES

Someone need to buy some NOs.

@johnleoks amen

@MarcusAbramovitch goober

predicted NO

Idk man even if it doesn’t happen I feel like the market is about out on this one

predicted YES

@Thagliou Carter has already lasted 3 weeks, I would imagine surviving additional time correlates with even longer timelines.

The next line of that article points out that 12-15% of hospice patients survive 6 months. Conditioned on not dying within 3 weeks (50%) that would put 15/50=~30% chance of making it 6 months, so somewhere between that until the end of this month.

predicted NO

@DanStoyell I haven't looked at the numbers here, but when old people are dying it always feels like hey, there's no movement and maybe they're stable forever until they suddenly do :(. So just on vibes, I'm long this one.