Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
9
121
190
2050
98%
chance

This market resolves once there's a large body of research comparing large real-money prediction markets to opinion polls, including both short and long term predictions across a broad spread of topics. If there's a strong consensus among the scientific/economic discipline at that time, this market resolves to that consensus. Otherwise it remains open until such a consensus exists.

(Outcomes on which prediction markets are known to have a structural bias towards inaccuracy, such as the demise of the prediction market platform itself, are ignored.)

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