Are prediction markets more accurate than polls?
9
122
αΉ755αΉ190
2050
98%
chance
1D
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1M
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This market resolves once there's a large body of research comparing large real-money prediction markets to opinion polls, including both short and long term predictions across a broad spread of topics. If there's a strong consensus among the scientific/economic discipline at that time, this market resolves to that consensus. Otherwise it remains open until such a consensus exists.
(Outcomes on which prediction markets are known to have a structural bias towards inaccuracy, such as the demise of the prediction market platform itself, are ignored.)
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Predictions on Predictions questions
Will someone fail to hydrate/eat, dying as a result, because they could not perceive reality, their hunger, or their thirst, while using a social media network in the next 10 years?
59% chance
Will a mainstream media outlet publish a story on how prediction markets affected the outcome of the primaries?
16% chance
Related questions
Which one is the most accurate prediction market? (2024)
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46% chance
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57% chance
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68% chance
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54% chance
Why should the average person care about prediction markets? Hit us with your best one-line argument!
Will US presidential election opinion polling for eventual runners correctly predict the result?
71% chance
Will prediction markets become popular and used by 80% of the countries of the world by 2027?
9% chance