When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD? | Manifold

When will the total market capitalization of prediction markets exceed 1 trillion USD?

Predictions on Predictions Meta-Forecasting Prediction market

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11

Ṁ381

2100

2,061.97

expected

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Criteria for Resolution:

1. Market Capitalization Exceeding 1 Trillion USD: The total market capitalization of prediction markets globally must exceed 1 trillion USD, adjusted to the 2024 equivalent value.

2. Credible Confirmation: Examples (non-exhaustive) of credible confirmation are:

- A credible analytical or consulting agency (e.g., Gartner, McKinsey, or similar) publishes a report stating that global prediction market capitalization has exceeded 1 trillion USD.

- Government regulators officially claim that the market capitalization of prediction markets has exceeded 1 trillion USD.

- It is directly visible from the financial reporting of companies organizing prediction markets, aggregated to show that total market capitalization exceeds 1 trillion USD.

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adjusted for inflation or not? @IhorKendiukhov

@Soli Yes. It is stated in the description.

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