Will Trump legalize prediction markets?
Standard
16
Ṁ1093
2029
14%
chance

Trump has been re-truthing his Polymarket odds because they favor him so heavily compared to other sources.

Is this the long-awaited path to prediction market mainstreaming?

Resolves YES if:

  • political betting is legalized or de-facto deregulated during a Trump presidency.

Resolves NO if:

  • The above happens during a non-Trump presidency.

  • Trump completes a second term without any indication of intending to pursue a third.

  • Trump dies.

FINE PRINT:

  • My threshold for "de-facto deregulation" is that it should be possible for Americans to place relatively unrestricted bets on e.g. Polymarket, and such a platform should be operating "in the open," not just hiding in a temporary legal grey area between permitted and banned. A good indicator would be if Polymarket feels comfortable buying subway ads.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00