🌐 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before January 31st 2024?
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resolved Jan 31
Resolved
NO

RESOLVES YES:

  • If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc.

  • There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user.

  • Free or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.

(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)

RESOLVES NO:

  • If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc.

NOTES:

  • The Close Time Is The Deadline.

  • I may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.

CLARIFICATIONS:

  • 12/08/2023 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.

  • 1/29/2024:


CONTEXT
Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models


DISCLAIMER

  • I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE

  • DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.

  • If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.


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predicted YES

It being released on January 31st would be a NO, right?

@12c498e
Correct, that is how the question is worded.

Also, there is the February Market that would cover January 31st if it came out that day.

If it is released as part of a simple web interface (Google Bard?) like ChatGPT is, without being integrated into other products like in the Search UI, is that still a YES?

@12c498e Like a domain url? Like https://chat.openai.com/

Is that what you are asking?

predicted YES

@SirCryptomind It doesn't necessarily need a specific URL.

Your description said "the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc."
If Gemini Ultra was publicly released as part of Bard, but Google chose not to integrate it into e.g. Search or Ads, what would that resolve as?

@12c498e
It would still more than likely be part of a Google Product, even if it is its own product.
I do not see that being a topic of issue.
I will think about it though and if I need to clarify anything I will update here and in the description.

Thanks!

This would ruin the fun of Manifold for me: "DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND."

@WrongoPhD This market is not labeled "Fun"

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