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Will Google have the best LLM by EOY 2024?
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Ṁ1.2kDec 31
35%
chance
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1M
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Resolution source: https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that might or might not qualify, but it is not yet ranked on the leaderboard at year's end due to time required for evaluation, I will hold off on resolving until that has happened until a maximum of February 1.
(Same clarification as the related market: If Google does take the top spot or becomes clearly best, this resolves to YES on the spot, this is by EOY not 'at' EOY.)
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Gemini 2.0 probably coming soon. Bet yes
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