In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
181
1.2K
1.6K
2028
58%
chance

Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best. So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality. That's the yardstick that I will be using. Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex. It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography. It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.

Main market:

Get Ṁ200 play money
Sort by:

can't AI already do this?

opened a Ṁ500 NO at 66% order

Wild that this market is trading at almost twice the main market 😆

I’m so sad I won’t be able to cash out for a couple years

I don't know what the major obstacles are here.

Context windows that can cover a movie script: largely solved

Video generation: largely solved

Audio generation: largely solved

Script writing: largely solved

I have no relevant expertise in this area, so I welcome correction... but all we're missing is an agential ai here right? One that can review outputs and assemble them, something equivalent to executive functioning in humans. This is a nut that every major player is trying to crack afaik.

@VerySeriousPoster this is why Andreç Karpathy left OpenAI

@VerySeriousPoster I'd say only audio generation is "mostly solved" but I'm not even sure we have Tommy Wiseau levels of voice acting yet.

@Shump Wiseau levels are the highest levels possible where AI achieves perfection and breaks through that, so it can finally aim lower convincingly

I don’t quite understand—does the AI have to autonomously generate audio and video, or just a script with visualization?

@thepurplebull Yes the AI has to generate all of these

bought Ṁ10 NO from 48% to 47%

already has text to video ai

If the best we have to hope of AI is Marvel quality, I'd simply rather not.

2 traders bought Ṁ26 NO
predicts NO

@Unown @Shump ok just to be clear, this has to be photorealistic, coherent video right?

@Joshua It can be an animation movie, but it still needs to stand up to standards of animated movies that actually get released to theaters then, not some home animation. It defnitely needs to be more coherent than this. I don't think this is made from a prompt either.

predicts NO

@Unown It's also not fully AI generated, only the script is done by LLM, the models and backgrounds are made by humans, model movements are just random.

Also also it's not "generated to a prompt" - a decent amount of human work and setup went to pertaining text to speech models, creating 3D environments and hooking everything up to LLM script generator.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

The hard part of making a marvel movie is not the script. I don't think this should be much higher than the main market.

More related questions