By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
153
638
2.1K
2027
59%
chance

https://twitter.com/solarise_webdev/status/1598708384441798656?t=gSyX2gzixpMryYOsyyxt7A&s=19

Close date updated to 2027-12-31 6:59 pm

Dec 2, 12:26pm: By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters? → By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

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bought Ṁ20 of NO

I'd really like to harvest mana from the unreasonable optimists in this market but I'm hesitant to take a huge position in a market created by someone who isn't well known.

predicts NO

@AndrewHartman Bet in the Scott Alexander one instead then, he's pretty trusted.

predicts NO

@IsaacKing Certainly, but his doesn't have quite the same conditions iirc. This market, as stated, seems like a slam dunk for NO.

@AndrewHartman This market is almost definitionally more likely to resolve YES than Scott Alexander's market. If AI can make any arbitrary hollywood-level film by Jan 1, 2028, then it can almost certainly make a lower quality, animated one, that doesn't have the requirement of being at the level of actual mainstream films!

bought Ṁ100 of YES

guys 2028 is just beyond of too far

https://youtu.be/ny2A_6lXilA

predicts NO

@Kormann Maybe, maybe not. Not sure if you watched the original Corridor Digital video, but they had to do A LOT of manual work to make it even visually coherent, forget about all of the writing and acting. And that was for a cool-for-the-novelty-but-not-actually-very-good couple of minutes about two dudes play rock paper scissors.

predicts NO

@jonsimon *playing

For comparison

bought Ṁ0 of NO

@ChanaMessinger Is there a minimum length or complexity? Could it be a 1 hour animation of a snail moving through some leaves?

predicts NO

@ChanaMessinger Could we get an update on this?

If AI is under serious legal restrictions, does this resolve NA or False?

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@StrayClimb this isn't a significant threat.

predicts YES

@L interesting, are you a no on this market?

predicts YES

@StrayClimb Hmm, I'll think about whether I disagree with 70% enough to trade, I probably don't. But I don't think legal restrictions could prevent this from occurring. It's much too easy to build with 2027's ai algorithms and compute substrates.

predicts NO

@L I'm really confused by your bets here; haven't you been confidently betting in other markets that AGI will likely come by 2028?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing yeah? why would that be confusing?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing like are you just confused why I don't bet every capabilities market up? or did I bet in a way that seems actively in conflict

bought Ṁ50 of YES

@IsaacKing like, I think there will be tons of legal restrictions on ai. but I don't think any of them will stop ai from being able to do anything a human can.

predicts NO

@L Ah, so you think we'll reach AGI very soon but it will be prevented from making movies? Interesting.

@IsaacKing he didn't say either of those things?

How long does the movie need to be?

bought Ṁ0 of YES

Does "consistent plot" mean that you have to like it about as much as a regular Disney movie? Or just passable?

@EmrikGarden it's meant to get at the thing where GPT3 sometimes loses track of who the characters in the stories are