I'd really like to harvest mana from the unreasonable optimists in this market but I'm hesitant to take a huge position in a market created by someone who isn't well known.

@AndrewHartman Bet in the Scott Alexander one instead then, he's pretty trusted.

@IsaacKing Certainly, but his doesn't have quite the same conditions iirc. This market, as stated, seems like a slam dunk for NO.

@AndrewHartman This market is almost definitionally more likely to resolve YES than Scott Alexander's market. If AI can make any arbitrary hollywood-level film by Jan 1, 2028, then it can almost certainly make a lower quality, animated one, that doesn't have the requirement of being at the level of actual mainstream films!

https://www.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/11zwaxx/microsofts_nuwaxl_creates_an_11_minute/

guys 2028 is just beyond of too far

https://youtu.be/ny2A_6lXilA

@Kormann Maybe, maybe not. Not sure if you watched the original Corridor Digital video, but they had to do A LOT of manual work to make it even visually coherent, forget about all of the writing and acting. And that was for a cool-for-the-novelty-but-not-actually-very-good couple of minutes about two dudes play rock paper scissors.

@jonsimon *playing

For comparison

@ChanaMessinger Is there a minimum length or complexity? Could it be a 1 hour animation of a snail moving through some leaves?

@ChanaMessinger Could we get an update on this?

If AI is under serious legal restrictions, does this resolve NA or False?

@StrayClimb this isn't a significant threat.

@L interesting, are you a no on this market?

@StrayClimb Hmm, I'll think about whether I disagree with 70% enough to trade, I probably don't. But I don't think legal restrictions could prevent this from occurring. It's much too easy to build with 2027's ai algorithms and compute substrates.

@L I'm really confused by your bets here; haven't you been confidently betting in other markets that AGI will likely come by 2028?

@IsaacKing yeah? why would that be confusing?

@IsaacKing like are you just confused why I don't bet every capabilities market up? or did I bet in a way that seems actively in conflict

@IsaacKing like, I think there will be tons of legal restrictions on ai. but I don't think any of them will stop ai from being able to do anything a human can.

@L Ah, so you think we'll reach AGI very soon but it will be prevented from making movies? Interesting.

@IsaacKing he didn't say either of those things?

How long does the movie need to be?

Does "consistent plot" mean that you have to like it about as much as a regular Disney movie? Or just passable?

@EmrikGarden it's meant to get at the thing where GPT3 sometimes loses track of who the characters in the stories are