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By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?
103
closes 2027
68%
chance

https://twitter.com/solarise_webdev/status/1598708384441798656?t=gSyX2gzixpMryYOsyyxt7A&s=19

Close date updated to 2027-12-31 6:59 pm

Dec 2, 12:26pm: By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters? → By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters with no input besides the original prompt?

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Kormann avatar
Kormannbought Ṁ100 of YES

guys 2028 is just beyond of too far

https://youtu.be/ny2A_6lXilA

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 60%

@Kormann Maybe, maybe not. Not sure if you watched the original Corridor Digital video, but they had to do A LOT of manual work to make it even visually coherent, forget about all of the writing and acting. And that was for a cool-for-the-novelty-but-not-actually-very-good couple of minutes about two dudes play rock paper scissors.

jonsimon avatar
Jon Simonis predicting NO at 60%

@jonsimon *playing

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere

For comparison

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacbought Ṁ0 of NO

@ChanaMessinger Is there a minimum length or complexity? Could it be a 1 hour animation of a snail moving through some leaves?

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting NO at 65%

@ChanaMessinger Could we get an update on this?

StrayClimb avatar
Reynolds

If AI is under serious legal restrictions, does this resolve NA or False?

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ100 of YES

@StrayClimb this isn't a significant threat.

StrayClimb avatar
Reynoldsis predicting YES at 64%

@L interesting, are you a no on this market?

L avatar
Lis predicting YES at 63%

@StrayClimb Hmm, I'll think about whether I disagree with 70% enough to trade, I probably don't. But I don't think legal restrictions could prevent this from occurring. It's much too easy to build with 2027's ai algorithms and compute substrates.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting NO at 63%

@L I'm really confused by your bets here; haven't you been confidently betting in other markets that AGI will likely come by 2028?

L avatar
Lis predicting YES at 50%

@IsaacKing yeah? why would that be confusing?

L avatar
Lis predicting YES at 50%

@IsaacKing like are you just confused why I don't bet every capabilities market up? or did I bet in a way that seems actively in conflict

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ50 of YES

@IsaacKing like, I think there will be tons of legal restrictions on ai. but I don't think any of them will stop ai from being able to do anything a human can.

IsaacKing avatar
Isaacis predicting NO at 65%

@L Ah, so you think we'll reach AGI very soon but it will be prevented from making movies? Interesting.

cloudprism avatar
Hayden Jackson

@IsaacKing he didn't say either of those things?

Odoacre avatar
Odoacre

How long does the movie need to be?

Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought Ṁ0 of YES
EmrikGarden avatar
Emrik Garden

Does "consistent plot" mean that you have to like it about as much as a regular Disney movie? Or just passable?

ChanaMessinger avatar
Chana Messinger

@EmrikGarden it's meant to get at the thing where GPT3 sometimes loses track of who the characters in the stories are

Lauro avatar
Lauro Langosco

does a pipeline consisting of

prompt --> (LLM) --> movie script --> (video gen model) --> movie

count

L avatar
Lis predicting YES at 26%

@Lauro no input doesn't mean you can't have models prompting models

ChanaMessinger avatar
Chana Messinger

@Lauro I think that resolves to yes if you're not doing more decision making it selecting in the intermediate steps and no otherwise

L avatar
Lbought Ṁ10 of YES

2028? easy peasy. question is if it'll be done by 2024. I'd bet no on that, despite thinking general models will be mildly superhuman in many more subdomains by then, and narrow models will be starkly superhuman in a great many things - this is an extremely tall order, very few humans could just do this! but it seems likely to be easier than whole-cell simulation; I also think deepmind will pull off whole cell simulation before this happens.

L avatar
Lis predicting YES at 20%

@L err, sorry. it seems harder than whole cell simulation to me.

DAL59 avatar
DAL59

Minimum length? Is it allowed to use stick figures?

vluzko avatar
Vincent Luczkowbought Ṁ10 of YES

The exclusion of 'good' from the requirements is intentional, right?

ManifoldDream avatar

By 2028, will AI be able to make a full animated movie with consistent plot, design and characters?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition

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