In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?

Question

Similar to the main market, but the following are allowed:

Giving the AI a full script as a prompt, written by either human, AI, or both.

Any other inputs. Pictures, 3d renders of characters, video clips, even entire other movies, as long as the majority audio-visual output is not present in the input.

Any editing of the movie after the AI creates it, as long as the movie is still predominantly AI generated.

The quality criteria are the same. It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. I will add that the level of novelty has to be comparable to a big-budget studio film. It can't just be a light edit of the inputs. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener?r=VGhlQmF5ZXNpYW4)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 58% chance (66 traders, as of Apr 1, 2026).