In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Question

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 47% chance (4,753 traders, as of Oct 31, 2026).