Israeli politics is pretty favorable to charismatic newcomers; Lapid and Gantz both got the 2nd largest Knesset party in their first elections, IIRC. It didn't get them the prime ministership though, with Netanyahu running against them and being a much more talented politican then both. Yossi Cohen can run no earlier then June, in any case. I'd take NO at 8%, but it will be interesting.

https://manifold.markets/manifoldaccount/who-will-be-in-the-israeli-governme

Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?

Related:

@0482 see also https://manifold.markets/manifoldaccount/who-will-be-in-the-israeli-governme

In case of rotation, is it the first it 50-50 split?

@0482 In case of rotation this settles to whoever goes first (I think that's more consistent with "first post-election PM").

You got to be kidding

@0482 more likely than bibi staying imo

@EliasShammas fair enough, let the best bet win

@0482 everyone's assuming that there will be movement to the left or no movement. rightward movement is a possibility. Bennet is the most likely candidate, but i would say smotrich could happen in a nightmare scenario

@EliasShammas I agree it's not impossible, but he was at 20%+ for a while which seems unreasonably high (the current odds make more sense).

Since some people have been betting on "other"; note that it's very unlikely to win since people can add new likely-seeming candidates until the election.

@ShakedKoplewitz the information mark over "other" says that new answers are split from this answer. Not sure exactly how this works (does it split 50-50?) but seems like betting on other does something.

@BaryLevy huh, guess I don't understand how "other" works then

@BaryLevy I bought "other" before. Now I have a similar payout for Smotrich (which was not listed when I bought "other").

I think it is just doing the fair thing - paying for any option not listed at that point in time

@NivCohen I bought "no" on other but don't currently have any (although I do seem to have some "yes" on Bibi and Lapid now, which I didn't buy). So I'm guessing buying yes/no on "other" just automatically translates to owning the corresponding amount of yes/no shares on the other currently existing candidates.