Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?
Bibi netanyahu
Benny Ganz
Naftali Bennet
Yair Lapid
Betzalel Smotrich
Yair Golan
Yossi Cohen
Nir Barkat

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
Yossi Cohen

Israeli politics is pretty favorable to charismatic newcomers; Lapid and Gantz both got the 2nd largest Knesset party in their first elections, IIRC. It didn't get them the prime ministership though, with Netanyahu running against them and being a much more talented politican then both. Yossi Cohen can run no earlier then June, in any case. I'd take NO at 8%, but it will be interesting.

In case of rotation, is it the first it 50-50 split?

@0482 In case of rotation this settles to whoever goes first (I think that's more consistent with "first post-election PM").

Betzalel Smotrich

You got to be kidding

@0482 more likely than bibi staying imo

@EliasShammas fair enough, let the best bet win

@0482 everyone's assuming that there will be movement to the left or no movement. rightward movement is a possibility. Bennet is the most likely candidate, but i would say smotrich could happen in a nightmare scenario

@EliasShammas I agree it's not impossible, but he was at 20%+ for a while which seems unreasonably high (the current odds make more sense).

Since some people have been betting on "other"; note that it's very unlikely to win since people can add new likely-seeming candidates until the election.

@ShakedKoplewitz the information mark over "other" says that new answers are split from this answer. Not sure exactly how this works (does it split 50-50?) but seems like betting on other does something.

@BaryLevy huh, guess I don't understand how "other" works then

@BaryLevy I bought "other" before. Now I have a similar payout for Smotrich (which was not listed when I bought "other").

I think it is just doing the fair thing - paying for any option not listed at that point in time

@NivCohen I bought "no" on other but don't currently have any (although I do seem to have some "yes" on Bibi and Lapid now, which I didn't buy). So I'm guessing buying yes/no on "other" just automatically translates to owning the corresponding amount of yes/no shares on the other currently existing candidates.