Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?
Basic
36
2.8k
2026
22%
Bibi netanyahu
55%
Benny Ganz
3%
Naftali Bennet
8%
Yair Lapid
0.9%
Betzalel Smotrich
0.8%
Yair Golan
1.2%
Yossi Cohen
1.5%
Nir Barkat
8%
Other

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Yossi Cohen

Israeli politics is pretty favorable to charismatic newcomers; Lapid and Gantz both got the 2nd largest Knesset party in their first elections, IIRC. It didn't get them the prime ministership though, with Netanyahu running against them and being a much more talented politican then both. Yossi Cohen can run no earlier then June, in any case. I'd take NO at 8%, but it will be interesting.

In case of rotation, is it the first it 50-50 split?

@0482 In case of rotation this settles to whoever goes first (I think that's more consistent with "first post-election PM").

Betzalel Smotrich

You got to be kidding

@0482 more likely than bibi staying imo

@EliasShammas fair enough, let the best bet win

@0482 everyone's assuming that there will be movement to the left or no movement. rightward movement is a possibility. Bennet is the most likely candidate, but i would say smotrich could happen in a nightmare scenario

@EliasShammas I agree it's not impossible, but he was at 20%+ for a while which seems unreasonably high (the current odds make more sense).

Since some people have been betting on "other"; note that it's very unlikely to win since people can add new likely-seeming candidates until the election.

@ShakedKoplewitz the information mark over "other" says that new answers are split from this answer. Not sure exactly how this works (does it split 50-50?) but seems like betting on other does something.

@BaryLevy huh, guess I don't understand how "other" works then

@BaryLevy I bought "other" before. Now I have a similar payout for Smotrich (which was not listed when I bought "other").

I think it is just doing the fair thing - paying for any option not listed at that point in time

@NivCohen I bought "no" on other but don't currently have any (although I do seem to have some "yes" on Bibi and Lapid now, which I didn't buy). So I'm guessing buying yes/no on "other" just automatically translates to owning the corresponding amount of yes/no shares on the other currently existing candidates.