what if the elections are inconclusive and we see a series of elections like we did from 2019 through 2021

Lapid is at 65% in my market. https://manifold.markets/nathanwei/who-will-be-in-the-israeli-governme

Does this mean Yesh Atid is in the coalition, or Yesh Atid has the Prime Minister position, or Yesh Atid is the assigned the task of forming a coalition?

@xyz I'll go with Yeah Atid is in the coalition.

Given current size, that probably means pm too, but being in the coalition is an easy thing to check.

@CromlynGames I recommend a title change, given that the current title implies PM.

@CromlynGames bad title

The probability of being in the coalition is correctly evaluated at about 50, and if being pm is maybe 10%. Extrapolation from the current size isn't how it work in israel. Even if it was their actual size it wouldn't give them the pm, even if they were the biggest party in the coalition