Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA. Will resolve upon final, official results. Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "Netanyahu is not elected" resolves based on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset, as determined by the officially published election results.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset, followed by > 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before) and no coalition is formed are most likely. See the market for live updates (35 traders, as of Oct 30, 2026).

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Ṁ345Ṁ1.5k

Dec 31

99%

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

96%

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

66%

no coalition is formed

44%

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

41%

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

27%

> 40 women elected

21%

Netanyahu is not elected

A single list gets more than 30 seats

Bennett becomes PM

Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA.

Will resolve upon final, official results.

Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "Netanyahu is not elected" resolves based on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset, as determined by the officially published election results.

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The "Netanyahu is not elected" answer was around 51% when I bet. I've got it closer to 3%. The creator clarified it means elected to the Knesset, not becoming PM. Netanyahu is automatically #1 on the Likud list, so any Likud seat puts him in, and Likud polls around 20+ seats. https://www.jns.org/news/israel-news/netanyahu-very-pleased-as-likud-publishes-primary-results