Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA. Will resolve upon final, official results. Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "Netanyahu is not elected" resolves based on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset, as determined by the officially published election results.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset, followed by > 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before) and Netanyahu is not elected are most likely. See the market for live updates (23 traders, as of Aug 9, 2026).

What will be the results of Israel's next election?

Ṁ345Ṁ888

Dec 31

98%

Ben Gvir is elected to Knesset

96%

> 20 new MKs (who never been in the Knesset before)

50%

Netanyahu is not elected

44%

A party receive more than 3% of the valid votes but does not pass the electoral threshold

38%

no coalition is formed

37%

> 40 women elected

36%

A single list gets more than 30 seats

27%

More valid votes in Tel Aviv than in Jerusalem

14%

Bennett becomes PM

Feel free to add answers, but only for the election results and Knesset members, not the government. Invalid answers will be resolved to NA.

Will resolve upon final, official results.

Update 2026-06-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The answer "Netanyahu is not elected" resolves based on whether Netanyahu is elected to the Knesset, as determined by the officially published election results.

Market context

Israeli Politics

Israeli Government

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