Will the Likud win the next Israeli election
37
Ṁ1kṀ3.4kNov 10
39%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud. The Likud is Netanhayu's party, but currently there are rumors of dissent within his own party, so this includes not only the probability of Netanyahu being the next prime minister but also anyone who might supplant him if he resigns or is ousted in the primary.
Elections are scheduled for October 2026 but will most likely happen sooner.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
@Shump how would you resolve in a scenario of undecided elections results, where no one is appointed PM and Netanyahu leads a temporary caretaker government, similar to 2019?
People are also trading
Related questions
Who will be the Israeli PM after the next election?
Will Naftali Bennett become Israel's prime minister after the October 2026 elections?
30% chance
Israeli Politics 2026 Prop Bets [add your predictions]
What will be the results of Israel's next election?
Will the current Israeli government last ~a full term?
72% chance
Will Netanyahu win the next elections in Israel?
50% chance
Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the leader of the Likud party for the next Israeli legislative elections? 🗳️
95% chance
Who will be the next Israeli Prime Minister?
Will the Israeli government significantly undermine the next election?
8% chance