Will the Likud win the next Israeli election
24
1kṀ2390
Nov 10
42%
chance

Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud. The Likud is Netanhayu's party, but currently there are rumors of dissent within his own party, so this includes not only the probability of Netanyahu being the next prime minister but also anyone who might supplant him if he resigns or is ousted in the primary.

Elections are scheduled for October 2026 but will most likely happen sooner.

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Israel
Israeli Politics
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This is way too high, come on, I expect a Gantz-Bennett rotation agreement (possibly with Lapid, Lieberman, etc in it too).

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