Will the Likud win the next Israeli election | Manifold

Will the Likud win the next Israeli election

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19

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2026

32%

chance

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Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud. The Likud is Netanhayu's party, but currently there are rumors of dissent within his own party, so this includes not only the probability of Netanyahu being the next prime minister but also anyone who might supplant him if he resigns or is ousted in the primary.

Elections are scheduled for October 2026 but will most likely happen sooner.

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#🇮🇱 Israel

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This is way too high, come on, I expect a Gantz-Bennett rotation agreement (possibly with Lapid, Lieberman, etc in it too).

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