Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
Will the Likud win the next Israeli election
34
Ṁ1kṀ3.1k
Nov 10
57%
chance

Resolves YES if the next prime minister is from the Likud. The Likud is Netanhayu's party, but currently there are rumors of dissent within his own party, so this includes not only the probability of Netanyahu being the next prime minister but also anyone who might supplant him if he resigns or is ousted in the primary.

Elections are scheduled for October 2026 but will most likely happen sooner.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:
bought Ṁ28 NO

@Shump how would you resolve in a scenario of undecided elections results, where no one is appointed PM and Netanyahu leads a temporary caretaker government, similar to 2019?

This is way too high, come on, I expect a Gantz-Bennett rotation agreement (possibly with Lapid, Lieberman, etc in it too).