EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
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OpenAI comes for Hollywood with Critterz, an AI-powered animated film | The Verge https://share.google/S5coF8rsPnj2quXaO
@Dulaman That is not close to satisfying this market, and by the time it comes out we will be about 18 months from this market settling NO.
@LoganZoellner I think this is more like Neuralink, which was supposed to release a product for treating brain injuries in 2021
@LoganZoellner You forgot the part of Elon promises where you have to roll a D20 and see if you get a critical hit to find out if it happens at all
@JimHays
Metaculus used to have a site where they tracked every single prediction Elon made and the median was that things took 2x as long as he predicted. But, yeah, there have certainly been outliers (fully-autonomous Tesla self-driving being a particularly painful one for me personally).
I'm really sad that they took it down, because I think there might be a Hofstadters's Law effect going on where once "Elon Time" became a known thing he started making much more aggressive predictions such that you now have to 2x the 2x.
Relevant to whether someone will try to build it: https://www.screendaily.com/news/netflix-releases-guidelines-for-using-generative-ai-in-productions/5208200.article
@JonasVollmer my guess is Netflix don’t actually care if people use it if it were providing real value to them, they just don’t want to be seen as welcoming it - to protect their own industry and avoid any union, copyright, PR, data, or other issues.
Tbh it probably also benefits them to be publicly anti-AI because no doubt if an AI movie generator exists they will go down kicking and screaming with copyright complaints etc.
If this resolves YES I’d bet Netflix sue an AI company within 2 years of resolution. That markets probably too specific to be worth making, but if someone can come up with a better one that captures the idea, I’d bet
@Gen I disagree; Hollywood hates AI and anyone using it in ways not endorsed by major players like Netflix is damaging their reputation and career. Of course, it might still happen despite that, but I do think this will delay things
@Dulaman It will be able to do everything -- same as all not-yet-available models for the past three years
I’d be really interested in a question asking what year people do think this will be possible. I think unless there’s a slowdown in ai progress I’d be surprised if something technically passible can’t be done by 2034. Quality I think would be harder though because there’s so many different things like subplots, pacing, having a soundtrack that’s coherent and not just generic, some kind of unique to the film visual language that isn’t just a generic version of most films of a genre, set up and pay of, a very deep understanding of physics and time etc that would be required to make something “good” unless you’re specifically valuing the novelty and strangeness of what ai can make in which case I think you could already make something interesting and feature length.
@Ataraxia Taking @LoganZoellner estimate that completing making a 7-minute AI video currently takes them 2 hours, at least, and extrapolating a transformers-double-in-power-every-seven-months trend, I calculated it will take one minute for humans to generate a 120 minute film in January 2032.
On a meta level though, I don't expect the 7-month-doubling trend to continue indefinitely, and I expect we'll reach the singularity sometime before 2030. If you told me that in January 2028, an AI is able to generate a 120 minute movie with less than 1 minute of human labor, I'd be more surprised if you told me that AI was just plugging along normally than if you told me 2028 was a post-scarcity singularity.
@GG yeah, if ai improvements start to accelerate ai improvements then timelines for everything get much much shorter and as task like making a movie could become trivial. I’m personally skeptical that we’re less than three years away from that or what most ppl would count as a singularity. Now that I’m thinking about it though, if an ai can generate short videos well and then has a scratch pad to remember important details and larger scale structure, I think it would actually become a lot easier. Part of what’s pushing me to be skeptical also is that if even just one or two things are off in a two hour film, it can really tank the quality. Like if a characters voice doesn’t quiet work or the third act doesn’t really follow the second etc, there’s a really wide surface area for failure. I guess this question is kind a proxy for if there will be an intelligence explosion or not for me lol
@Ataraxia
My (only semi-sarcastic) guess is that we will have systems that questionably resolve this positive in 2028, similar to when Scott Alexander prematurely declared victory on his image-generation bet and an unambiguously good movie generation system a year or two after that.
In particular, the low quality version of this question will resolve positive and then we will endlessly debate the meaning of the words "more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film" until an AI movie achieves some huge milestone (box office, academy award, high quality turning test).
>I guess this question is kind a proxy for if there will be an intelligence explosion or not for me lol
Much like "an AI can never win at chess", "an ai can never win at go" "an ai could never pass as a human undetected on reddit" and "an ai could never generate images undistinguishable from real photographs" I very much believe that "an AI can never generate a film" is one of those milestones that we will fly past and people will still be saying "it's not really thinking"
@LoganZoellner you're right. Idk why I wrote what I did but it feels super obvious to me you don't need to be super intelligent to be able to generate quality movies.
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