By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?
24
1kṀ2619
2035
1%
<=2025
9%
2026
18%
2027
14%
2028
13%
2029
9%
2030
8%
2031
5%
2032
4%
2033
4%
2034
15%
>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

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bought Ṁ60 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

@12c498e yup

bought Ṁ4 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order

@12c498e yup

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At the beginning of 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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6% chance
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