By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?
19
1kṀ1882
2035
6%
<=2025
11%
2026
18%
2027
11%
2028
11%
2029
8%
2030
7%
2031
5%
2032
4%
2033
3%
2034
17%
>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

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bought Ṁ60 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

@12c498e yup

bought Ṁ4 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order

@12c498e yup

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
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