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MANIFOLD
By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?
34
Ṁ1kṀ3.1k
2035
0.9%
<=2025
5%
2026
21%
2027
22%
2028
15%
2029
7%
2030
6%
2031
3%
2032
3%
2033
3%
2034
14%
>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

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@MilfordHammerschmidt Need a resolution on <=2025.

bought Ṁ60 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

@12c498e yup

bought Ṁ4 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

opened a Ṁ1 NO at 20% order

@12c498e yup

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By 2029, will an AI be able to generate Video Games comparable to ~2023 'AA' Mid Market Games?
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In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
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By mid-2027, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
37% chance
In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
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21% chance
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
63% chance