By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt? | Manifold

By what year will an AI be able to generate a full, high-quality movie to a prompt?

#AI #Technical AI Timelines #AI Impacts

15

142

Ṁ1.4k

Ṁ1k

2035

1D

1W

1M

ALL

10%

<=2025

10%

2026

14%

2027

12%

2028

12%

2029

6%

2030

4%

2031

4%

2032

4%

2033

3%

2034

22%

>=2035

Same criteria as the Scott Alexander market. "Make a movie sequel to Firefly"

Get Ṁ600 play money

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Sort by:

bought Ṁ60 >=2035 NO

Also, the mentioned Scott Alexander market is https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener, right?

bought Ṁ4 <=2025 YES

e.g. "By 2026" means from January 1st 2026 to December 31st 2026, right?

opened a Ṁ1 >=2035 NO at 20% order

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