In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
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2.9k
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2028
36%
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IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

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I want to bet but don’t what to lock my Mana for that long. What do?

You can sell your shares when the market moves. If you are right and the market agrees then you should see profit before resolution

That could also take a very long time.

It could, or it could not. That’s part of the decision whether to bet. These are prediction markets, nothing is guaranteed

Point is, that's a totally different prediction

bought Ṁ50 YES at 39%

Maybe but there isn’t a way to disentangle them (yet). So on every market you have to consider what you think the truth is, whether the resolution will reflect that truth, and how soon the market will agree with it. That’s what prediction markets are like. If that’s no good for you then don’t bet

We had loans...

Super intrigued about this. How did it worked? Negative balance or interest bearing type loans?

we got daily loans on invested mana as balance in-hand. at the end it was 4% on mana committed to a market, lesser of cost basis or value, minus outstanding leveraged (loaned) mana. no interest or fees, just extra leverage. when you sold, you paid back your loan in that market first, based on % of position sold. when a market resolved, you paid the whole loan back, either out of winnings or pocket. sometimes people would go negative, but not often

it meant that long-term bets were almost fully leveraged within a couple of months so you could keep playing with the mana as if you never spent it and expand your portfolio. the problem was that some people didn't diversify their portfolios with their loans. instead they doubled down and kept reinvesting in the same market, making them hyper overleveraged and in debt if that market ever resolved against them

I feel seen in this comment

no holders on this q will have their superforecasting liscenses revoked

3 traders bought Ṁ525 NO
bought Ṁ1,000 YES at 39%

We will see in 2028.

earlier

bought Ṁ50 YES at 36%
2 traders bought Ṁ300 NO

Concatenate 1440 of those, and you get a 2h movie. Done !

There was even more manual work than I expected

Veo from Deep Mind just announced (tbc I'm just sharing, not a suggestion that it's currently a thing capable of resolving this market)

The Frost is an AI-generated movie that is 12 minutes long. Essentially, if you to create a 120 minute movie you can create a 10 act movie now with current technology.

bought Ṁ100 NO from 34% to 33%

@TalesFromTheBasement

https://youtu.be/QW-NFkVDfdA?si=uYl1Ph21N35CoBqH

not quite "comparable to a big-budget studio film"

not quite generated from a prompt

but still fun

bought Ṁ100 NO

@TalesFromTheBasement ehhh one "small" difference between this and a film like stark trek or star wars is that in the latter people move instead of standing around like frozen puppets 😅.

Who decides what a full high-quality movie is?

@Ganf Scott Alexander

@DylanSlagh it's funny how this 100% sounds like a meme reply, but is actually correct.

@HenriThunberg This clarifies things a lot. Thank you :)

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