EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
People are also trading
@Velaris frontier AI can already just make its own harnesses in response to a prompt so does it matter lol?
@bens lunatics running the asylum ahh comment.
Letting AI design its own harness is an obvious safety risk IMO.
Its not going back down.
https://www.magnific.com/originals/chronicles-of-bone/a-vengeful-fairy
@robm Okay we can resolve the market yes for "can 100 prompts create a 20 minute porn parody with no sex"
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZTyhd7pdd/
Here's a demo of changing framing, focus, and camera motions, to make things cinematic.
This is actually the clip I saw first, and went looking for what people had made with it, the other two videos are the same tool.
@robm This is what gives you a firm 40% or more credence that I will be able to go into a model on January 15th 2028 and type "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover" and get an Avengers: Infinity War level movie in one shot?
@Panfilo Honestly it's pretty impressive compared to what was going on even half a year ago. Improvement at this rate and I think it's definitely not impossible.
@Qoiuoiuoiu I expect the low-quality version of this market could resolve any time now and the high-quality market 1-2 years after that. I could probably cobble together something that passed the low-quality market but it would cost a few $10k's in opus/astra/veo/seeddance credits and be pretty badly bitter-lesson'd. The next generation of models should trivially solve that market.
Not really an update but this was fun to watch: AI is a normal technology?
@AdamK Looking forward to increasingly virtuosic and large-scale AI-created artworks pondering whether AI is a Normal Technology
@ScottAlexander We should interpret the example prompt of "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover" to mean that the prompt couldn't include a script, directions, and so on, correct?
@0xseraphim I don't think I agree with "anything," since a system prompt that contained a full prewritten Star Wars / Star Trek crossover script already approved for quality would, for example, clearly fly in the face of the spirit of the question.
@Panfilo what if that exists in the pretraining distribution and the weights of the model have memorised it?
@0xseraphim Then it's down to whether Scott intended his own market to be obviously circumvented by a technicality. Given that it's a subjective quality question with implied originality, I'd be surprised if he is. He seems to check the site a few times per year, so hopefully we'll see.
@Panfilo are you saying you think that there are no fan made star trek / star wars crossover scripts in the pretraining distribution that LLMs are trained on?
@Panfilo I mean, a normal part of making a movie involves procuring a script. If the AI can make a movie based on free source material online (like fanfiction or public domain texts or whatever) then that's obviously within scope

