EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.
1,000People are also trading
What are the latest developments relevant to this market? Is this the current state of the art?
"A mime juggles four bowling pins, then takes a tennis ball out of his pocket and starts juggling that along with the four pins"
https://sora.chatgpt.com/p/s_6977fd35e4508191a308085334aff625
(Fails miserably)
@DavidBolin I think there will be a long gap (decades?) between this market's criteria being met and human-made films losing all value to the public.
@Fion true, but film-making will still change dramatically. Certain maximally costly parts of human-made films will be “automated” or generated by AI at a commercial level.
Blockbuster films routinely cost several hundred million to make, of course they will be massively impacted by this sort of technology ~regardless of consumer preferences.
@Tomoffer thanks for a nice update on where frontier ai video/audio capabilities are at. Presumably that is with a lot of human intervention of course, but it was actually very listenable. Watching it was more due to ai fascination than actually being decent, though some of the shots were kinda good.
@Tomoffer In one sense it's absolutely incredible this is possible at all.
In another sense, this doesn't look very different from this video in the same channel, which is one year older than the one you posted.
Michael Truell on X: "We built a browser with GPT-5.2 in Cursor. It ran uninterrupted for one week. It's 3M+ lines of code across thousands of files. The rendering engine is from-scratch in Rust with HTML parsing, CSS cascade, layout, text shaping, paint, and a custom JS VM. It kind of works! It https://t.co/jA6wDdwRif" / X
Just posting this to push up the price so I can buy more NO.
@DavidBolin amazing that AI can now copy an entire 3M line program from the many dozens of examples available online
@pietrokc So why wouldn't it be able to copy one of the thousands of movies that are available online?
@DavidBolin A correct overall confidence interval does not equal the modal outcome. Yes, in some sense “by default” this resolves no (and I’ve bet accordingly), which means the most likely sequence of events is slow time decay through 2028.
But there’s always been way more than 3% chance of crazy happening faster than expected.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/11/disney-openai-sora-characters-video.html
Not big technical news, but if your model was "we might be able to technically accomplish this, but IP ownership is going to strangle the possibility", this should move you up.
1:1 comparison with human-made christmas ad released at the same time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Na9VmMNJvsA