In mid 2026, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality short film to a prompt?
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Example Prompt: "Make me a 10-minute animated short film in the style of Pixar about a lost toy trying to find its way home."

The generated short film should be comparable in quality to a professionally produced animated short, suitable for a film festival. It doesn't need to be indistinguishable from a human-made film, but it should be cohesive, well-paced, and visually compelling. The AI used to create it does not need to be publicly available, as long as its existence and capabilities are confirmed.


Intended to be a proxy for telling if we're on track for https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

Some clarifications:

This does not have to be a single model and may be a system composed of several programs and models as long as it will do the work from start to finish on its own without human intervention aside from the initial prompt.

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Could it be a few AI/software systems glued together? E.g. an LLM call writes a script, scaffolding software splits the script into short clips and generates them with a video model, then stitches those clips together.

@jellyberg Yes, and I'll edit the description to clarify in a bit. Edit: Done

@JoshSnider Great (as a sidenote, I think that'll make it much easier to adjudicate because proprietary products might not reveal how they work)

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