Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?
First half 2024
Second half 2024
First half 2025
Second half 2025
First half 2026
Second half 2026
First half 2027
Second half 2027
First half 2028
Second half 2028

Based off

Resolves YES to each half-year this is possible. Resolves NO to each half year its not possible.

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bought Ṁ10 of Second half 2027 NO

look i don't know exactly what this curve should look like but it certainly shouldn't be 16 -> 20 -> 28 -> 29 -> 30 that's ridiculous

bought Ṁ20 of Second half 2027 YES

@April I'm going to keep buying everything past late 2027 up to wherever the other market is as arbitrage.

@robm but surely you should be buying late 2028 up to where the market is, and buying the ones before it less and less? there's nothing special about late 2027 in particular!

@April the other market seems to be about the state of the world on 1/1/28 (at least that's the consensus in the comments, even if it doesn't match the title). In this market I think late 2027 includes Dec 31. So late 2027 is the special one that matches up, minus 1 day.

(Somebody please tell me if I've got this wrong before I lose too much mana)

bought Ṁ20 of Second half 2026 YES

@robm oh, yeah, okay

@April the curve is starting to look right

bought Ṁ40 of Second half 2027 YES

@firstuserhere Does this resolve YES for the first period when this is possible, or every period when this is possible?

bought Ṁ40 of Second half 2027 YES

@robm since it's monotonic, it seems like the market is assuming multiple options can resolve yes. otoh, I don't understand why the last 3 options aren't arbitraged up to match the main market

bought Ṁ7 of Second half 2028 YES

ok fine. I'll do it myself. If I'm wrong somebody can bet them back down.

sold Ṁ12 of Second half 2023 NO

@robm yes every period when this is possible

Second half 2023

This can resolve to NO.

bought Ṁ50 of Second half 2025 NO

@Fy This is like training a gorilla to say a few words and imaging that given a few more years you can get it to engage in human conversation.

@DavidBolin I’m on your side but that seems like a particularly bad example. given that a few years ago LLMs could only say a few coherent words at a time and now can engage in conversation 😅

@DylanSlagh It isn't a bad example because it does not, in fact, work with a gorilla, and it isn't going to work with AI generated movies.

Is this market for "the first half-year during which this is possible"? Or a market for "during what half years will this be possible?"

Doesn't this need a "later" option? Otherwise it's conditioned on it happening at all by the end of 28

@Tomoffer No, it can resolve NO to all options if doesnt happen in any of them

@firstuserhere How do I bet on NO? Never mind, I can bet NO on all of them.

bought Ṁ30 of First half 2026 NO

@Tomoffer feels like trimming a hedge, going round betting them down and trying to get it to be monotonic...

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