Will we get AGI before July 1st 2028?
54
481
970
2028
24%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as true if such a system is created before July 1st 2028

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Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AGI_circuit_board.png

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question should resolve yes: https://chat.openai.com/

predicts YES

@spider their ability to plan and solve problems is still considerably below human level for now. Additionally, these trained language models can only learn new skills within short contexts, and cannot learn from experience over long contexts.

Since these models do not fulfill the above criteria, therefore they are not AGI (as defined in the context of this question)