Distance to the bar: the criterion is 95% of all people diagnosed being alive and in complete remission 18 months later, in four of the listed countries. Today's US five-year relative survival across all cancers is about 69% (SEER), and roughly a fifth of new cancers are metastatic at diagnosis, where 18-month complete-remission rates are a small minority. Getting from there to 95% within four years would need several new treatment classes approved, adopted and already paying off in national statistics by 2030, when the latest AI-designed candidates are only now entering Phase 1 (Isomorphic by end of 2026) and the one in Phase 3 (Insilico's rentosertib) is for lung fibrosis, not cancer. Worth knowing for the longer horizon: dogs get the same spontaneous cancers as people, and the NCI runs a Comparative Oncology Trials Consortium precisely because a new agent's effect shows up in dogs in a year or two rather than a decade; the same clock is why aging drugs are being tested for lifespan in dogs first. Registry of those trials (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/trials/

Canine aging trial registry

Registry of 37 interventional studies and cohorts on aging in dogs, each typed and backed by verbatim source quotes.

I think we'll have cured a lot more cancers than currently but we certainly won't have cured all known ones yet