Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.
In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2026.
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-e2cd2abbbed6 (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-92c17acb77f1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7e534a91d188
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7ddfe58feb89
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
/RemNi/will-we-have-a-cure-for-cancer-befo
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-06bd353512dc
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-d3d4a061f891
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-5d430e6e7829
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-99db0a1a6f37
Numeric market:
/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc
Other questions for 2026:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-cbfe304a2ed7
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1
/RemNi/will-a-significant-ai-generated-mem-1760ddcaf500
Other reference points for cure for cancer:
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-we
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-939ead04dfb1
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c
The cohorts considered in these studies must be statistically representative of that country's population.
I might be missing something, but what is the rationale for anybody betting YES? The question assumes that by June 2024 (i.e. in 4 months from now), there are trials that have already enrolled a substantial number of patients for new treatments for many types of cancer that affect a lot of people but that do not currently have high remission in four different countries. This means that the trials need to have already be registered and enrolling patients TODAY. Further all of those trials have to succeed in improving the remission rate substantially. E.g. in the UK the current one year survival across all types of cancer is 70% (this means the 18 month remission is substantially lower as not all who survive are in remission). I'd guess that this this would not resolve YES even if all trials currently running achieved 100% remission as not all cancer types are under investigation in multiple countries.
Also reminding everybody that cancer is not a single disease where a single treatment is likely to provide general cure.