Will we get a cure for cancer before 2032?

1kṀ1310

2032

17%

chance

ALL

Resolves as YES if 95% of individuals diagnosed with cancer are alive and cancer-free (complete remission) 18 months after initial diagnosis, in a least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy.

In order for this question to resolve as YES, there has to be credible evidence in each qualifying country that this threshold has been reached. This evidence (e.g. clinical studies) must take into consideration patients diagnosed with cancer at least 18 months prior to January 1st 2032.

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/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224

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/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ffd180fe8e3d (this question)

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Numeric market:

/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-a-cure-for-canc

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

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