The most bet option by March 1 wins.

Each user is encouraged to share your own arguments why Manifold is or is not fair.

I'll start with a couple of arguments against it:

1. Users accumulate mana over time. This liquidity gives them excessive weight when betting.

2. The outcome of a market should be measured by the number of individual users who voted for a specific outcome, not by how much they bet.

This market resolves TRUE if the percentage at close is greater than 50%

This market resolves FALSE if the percentage at close is lower than 50%

This market resolves N/A if the percentage at close is exactly 50%