Will we get AGI before 2030?
➕
Plus
159
Ṁ44k
2030
51%
chance

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.

Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030

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/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)

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/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045

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Related markets:

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032

/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034

/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035

Other questions for 2030:

/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa

/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4

/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f

/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9

/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce

/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594

Solar system exploration questions:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58

Other points of reference for AGI:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid

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This is ambiguous.

Are we talking average human level? Competent at task human level? Expert human level? Best in the world human level?

@ChrisLeong This market was always going to be subjective, but some kind of additional explanation would be nice.

bought Ṁ30 YES

@NoRespect I'm on the lookout for a set of criteria that are "necessary but not sufficient", along those lines. Ideally a set of criteria that there is a broad consensus on. My sense is that the goalposts will continue to move in the same direction as they have up until now, so necessary criteria should remain relevant

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