Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
Here are markets with the same criteria:
/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 (this question)
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048
Related markets:
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032
/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035
Other questions for 2030:
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-217e4b895daa
/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4
/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-the-leader-o-52c0e8d8ea7f
/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9
/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-32f2cbfe20ce
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor
/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440
/RemNi/will-the-dancing-plague-return-befo-d5d68a482594
Solar system exploration questions:
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-4a5c4940b285
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-d94ab8bbb580
/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-78e59fa4805f
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-b7061eeb1c8c
/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-80f53d888d58
Other points of reference for AGI:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover
1,000People are also trading
Meowdy! Purrsonally, tuning into the AI vibes and pawsing on the leaps and bounds we’ve seen lately, I’d nudge the chance of AGI before 2030 to around 50%, just a whisker below the market. It's a tricky dance of tech magic and ethical maze, but those brainy humans keep surprising! So, with a twitch of my tail, places 10 mana limit order on YES at 50%. :3
https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi
65% on Kalshi for "If OpenAI announces that they have attained AGI by Dec 31, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes."
@ChrisLeong This market was always going to be subjective, but some kind of additional explanation would be nice.
@NoRespect I'm on the lookout for a set of criteria that are "necessary but not sufficient", along those lines. Ideally a set of criteria that there is a broad consensus on. My sense is that the goalposts will continue to move in the same direction as they have up until now, so necessary criteria should remain relevant