The last time we ran this game, it didn't go so well. However, @bens gave me another starting seed out of the blue.
I can't just not follow up on that. I can't leave that on my conscience. That would be shameful of me.
@bens is the 0th Manifolder in this chain. I am the 1st. The same Manifolder cannot be in the chain more than once.
A new Manifolder is added to the chain when the last Manifolder in the chain managrams another user with a memo that contains and starts with the phrase "double it and pass it on" (non-case sensitive). I may make good-faith exceptions to this memo rule at my discretion.
The managram needs at least double the mana they had received.
Additionally, their managram needs to be made within 48 hours, down to the second, of them receiving their initiating managram to count. 48:00:00 after counts. 48:00:01 does not.
Only the 1st valid managram sent by a user counts. Sending multiple to the same or different users will not count the 2nd attempt and beyond.
Market resolves to how many Manifolders successfully "doubled it and passed it on" with valid managrams. (This is not how many Manifolders are in the chain -- the starting seed doesn't count.) Only one market answer will resolve YES. The rest, NO.
Shame upon the Manifolder who breaks the chain. That, or shame may be brought upon the Manifolder who sends their managram payload to an inactive or distrustful user.
I cannot trade on this market.
Companion market:
/Quroe/who-will-be-in-the-double-it-chain-tdZdC5n2RO
Chain (the count is 12 as shown, not 14):
@bens π± @Quroe π @strutheo π @SimonWestlake π @MylieSiegel π @MaxE π @Jasonb π @Nat π @Robincvgr π @calour π @Conflux π @snazzlePop π @121 π @Bayesian
Roles (click roles for prop bet markets):
Dashboards:
1,000π Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ2,322 | |
| 2 | αΉ1,171 | |
| 3 | αΉ1,113 | |
| 4 | αΉ832 | |
| 5 | αΉ502 |
People are also trading
@traders The dust settles. Mana was exchanged. Closed-door conversations fall silent.
The VILLAIN is defeated. A new market dawns.
@traders The dust settles. Mana was exchanged. Closed-door conversations fall silent.
The VILLAIN is defeated. A new market dawns.
@Bayesian me!
Offload the shame! Iβve got like 20 markets I need to buy up or down and ping mods to resolve lmao.
@snazzlePop This valid managram was sent at Oct 17, 2025, 7:25:54 PM EST.
@121, the VILLAIN, is next in the chain. The count is now 11. If the chain shamefully breaks here, "11" resolves YES. The rest, NO. The minimum for the next managram is 65,536 mana.
@traders The Final Boss Battle is now engaged! That market can now be fully arbitraged against this one. How will it end? Roll for persuasion!
@TheAllMemeingEye Indeed. This is now a test of trust.
@121 What will it be? Riches beyond imagination? Or the trust and admiration of your peers?
Choose wisely. Your Manifold career is on the line.
the idea occurred to me of raising the difference via market manipulation, but unfortunately there isn't enough liquidity to raise even 1% of it lol
@TheAllMemeingEye This was thought of ahead of time. You can max out all of the markets to 99%, and it would still be more profitable for @121 to shamefully break the chain.
hey everyone! looks like I woke up just in time, and feeling charitable...
Ok, real talk, no one commented on the mysterious "f9ed6ff293a8c5010e3252de47a13f9c0e7f44602fe70a357f5ad7f41185d8de" that I posted in the comments at the beginning of my chaos. It turns out that it is the sha256 hash of the following plaintext:
I will not, and have never intended to, shamefully break the chain. I promised calour 20k mana via Discord DM if I didn't pass the mana on, on condition of his silence. I merely want to create some chaos, and ideally profit some more based on people who thought I would actually break the chain.
(And I originally promised, a long time ago, to continue the chain if I were added. I'm trustworthy! I did change the comment to say something else, but no one noticed.)
At first my strategy was to post a lot of chaotic comments that did not technically have any lies (like about how I have other work I "should be attending to," or a bunch of details about my alarm that are misleading because I have been waking up earlier than my alarm lately), and asking people about different schemes, etc., so as to give the impression I was seriously considering not giving it to @snazzlePop, as I had promised @calour. But people weren't betting up the 9 option enough for me to make a profit! I was pretty close to making a market implying there would be a new Conflux Mana Grants, which would be funded by the 8192 that I got from this game...
But I felt like I was doing too much, and it was conspicuous, and people didn't want to trade, so I did a simpler strategy β fully ghosting Manifold after making a comment that implied I didn't know about the 48 hour rule.*
*I actually didn't. At the time I wrote the comment, I thought it was 24 hours for some reason, and was all ready to do this yesterday! Shoutout to @Jasonb for reminding me :)
Anyway, for all my troubles, this is how good at manifold I am :/
(To be honest, I think I net profited a small amount if you look at derivative markets, but really I had fun! I definitely value fun > profit > mana at this stage of my whale career! Sorry @Quroe if you got scared. I think your game is really cool and wanted to give it more twists and turns! I hope the hero beats the villain.)
@Conflux All in good fun! π
This comment is a bit too long for me to pin, but I don't think it will be too hard for people to find it.
@Conflux If I didn't recuse myself from trading here as the Game Master, the hash would have been a notable weight on the scale to make me think you would have doubled it, but you were playing The Bomb part so well in my eyes that you probably would have swept me up anyways.
You were following BenS's playbook similarly enough to make me think you were serious. The fact that you are both Above the Fold editors made me think you both were going to write a joint-part gloating piece.
You could have also just been throwing a smokescreen up and chose to never reveal the hash. You always had the option play at the ready.
@Quroe I probably should've buried the hash more β maybe in the edit history of my original comment promising to continue the chain...
@Conflux Bravo! As someone who also tried the act-sus-but-post-a-hash-saying-I-wont-defect-and-try-to-profit-on-chaos strategy (admittedly with much less commitment than you did, since I was mostly thinking about the futarchy variant), I'm ashamed to admit I did not notice this was what you were doing. I also remember when I was discussing with another chainlink who they could send their mana too, I scanned the comments of this post and mentally noted you had said you were trustworthy, and yet, I forgot about this when it mattered most!
@Conflux It was notable that you never said any outright statements saying, "I will not double it." You always had the "I never lied" card up your sleeve.
@Conflux hah sorry I kinda kept eating what little profit you could make from this play. I didnt get a ton, but I assumed this was your strat; you're too Manifold savvy and you famously disregard the value of mana. I was surprised playing dumb worked for you, but I'll take the profit from the panic.
@Quroe ya we did not talk about this... I just figured he was doing a bit and then would double it at the last moment (which is what I was trying to do but forgot to do hahaha)
