How many Manifolders will "double it and pass it on"?
8
1.6kแน€965
Oct 31
7.1 Manifolders
expected
2%
1
7%
2
9%
3
9%
4
9%
5
9%
6
9%
7
7%
8
8%
9
9%
10
9%
11
13%
โ‰ฅ12

@Wott has, without warning, sent me 16 mana seemingly as a response to this Discord message.

I can't just not follow up on that. I can't leave that on my conscience. That would be shameful of me.


@Wott is the 0th Manifolder in this chain. I am the 1st. The same Manifolder cannot be in the chain more than once.

A new Manifolder is added to the chain when they managram another user with a memo that contains and starts with the phrase "double it and pass it on" (non-case sensitive). I may make good faith exceptions to this memo rule at my descretion.

The managram needs at least double the mana they had received.

Additionally, their managram needs to be made within 48 hours of them receiving their initiating managram to count.

Only the 1st valid managram sent by a user counts. Sending multiple to the same or different users will not count the 2nd attempt and beyond.

Market resolves to how many Manifolders successfully "doubled it and passed it on".

Shame upon the Manifolder who breaks the chain. That, or shame may be also be brought upon the Manifolder who sends their managram payload to an inactive user.

I cannot trade on this market.

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@bens Tag! You're it!

@bens is next in the chain. The count is 1.

bought แน€50 NO

There is a huge extra upside to not passing on because you control whether your number resolves YES, right? You can get like an extra ~1k mana for defecting. Not sure if shame is going to be enough to stop people from taking that deal ๐Ÿ˜›

@rayman2000 Say you hold zero shares for your chain link. Everybody bets it to 99% near the end of the wire, expecting you to be shameful.

Surprise! You were online the whole time! You double it and pass it on and simultaneously rip it. You wager it into the ground, taking the entirety of the market liquidity for yourself.

I've just increased the liquidity for this market to 1.6k mana to try to make the math easier to calculate in binary steps.

@rayman2000 In effect, you can play both sides of the coin. One side is just more shameful than the other, but just as profitable.

@Quroe But you don't have control over which side you can play (besides trying to influence how people bet). In the current state of the market, you can only defect by not passing on. If everyone expects you to defect and bets accordingly, then you can only defect by passing it on. This yeah, this is definitely fun!

@rayman2000 I also imagine we could be playing 12 iterated games of this if people want to play it by your original method.

https://manifold.markets/bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th?r=UXVyb2U

@traders Oh! It looks like managrams are timestamped! Does any body mind if I remove the screenshot post requirement and just do this by timestamps? Edit: I'm just going to do it and remove the posting the screenshot requirement. This seems simpler and less of a hassle. Have fun playing chicken.

I updated the rules to say I cannot trade on this market so that I can make good faith exceptions to the memo rule.

reposted

What is the price of shame in mana? It's price discovery time!

@bens Tag! You're it!

@bens is next in the chain. The count is 1.

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