This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
In last year’s report there was no clear signal for the El Niño Southern Oscillation and a weak La Niña was observed for the third year in a row. This La Niña is predicted to decline, and the multi-model ensemble-mean temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region are predicted to be positive for December 2023 – February 2024, indicating the onset of El Niño. There is a large ensemble spread (±1 ˚C) and skill is medium for year 1 (Figure 6). The five-year average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics has a 92% calibrated probability of being above average. Skill is medium, giving medium confidence in this forecast.
Will the WMO indeed report a positive mean temperature anomaly across the region during this period?
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@PlasmaBallin
Can this resolve?
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/sstoi.indices
shows monthly values of +1.99 +1.78 and +1.53 so it isn't close.
WMO report 5 March
https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2024-03/WMO_ENLN_Update_Feb2024_approved.pdf
includes
As of mid-February 2024, sea surface temperatures in the eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean experienced a slight decline, measuring 1.5 °C above the long-term average for the week centered on 14 February 2024. This indicates the persistence of El Niño conditions, though gradually diminishing.
...
As of February 2024, both ocean and atmosphere over the tropical Pacific indicate the continued presence of El Niño conditions,
...
Expert assessment of model forecasts indicates that the 2023-24 El Niño is expected to persist during March-May