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Was a wild ride. July 31 came out as 17.07°C. Resolves YES

@PC https://manifold.markets/parhizj/will-august-3rd-be-the-hottest-day

Will August 3rd be the hottest day in Aug 2023?

50% chance. Resolves YES if the (singularly) hottest day in August 2023 is August 3rd. Resolves NO otherwise (this includes ties). If the data becomes unavailable for any reason, it will resolve N/A if and only if there is no temperature data for August 3rd available prior to September 2. I will try…

@parhizj What an interesting market

Date / Obs Temp/Climate Mean

July 1st: 16.75°C/16.19°C

July 2nd: 16.85°C/16.20°C

July 3rd: 17.01°C/16.20°C

July 4th: 17.18°C/16.20°C

July 5th: 17.18°C/16.21°C

July 6th: 17.23°C/16.22°C (Record Breaking)

July 7th: 17.20°C/16.22°C

July 8th: 17.17°C/16.23°C

July 9th: 17.11°C/16.23°C

July 10th: 17.12°C/16.23°C

July 11th: 17.08°C/16.23°C

July 12th: 17.04°C/16.23°C

July 13th: 16.98°C/16.23°C

July 14th: 16.94°C/16.24°C

July 15th: 16.99°C/16.25°C

July 16th: 17.03°C/16.26°C

July 17th: 17.11°C/16.27°C

July 18th: 17.17°C/16.27°C

July 19th: 17.16°C/16.28°C

July 20th: 17.12°C/16.27°C

July 21st: 17.11°C/16.27°C

July 22nd: 17.10°C/16.27°C

July 23rd: 17.08°C/16.25°C

July 24th: 17.08°C/16.25°C

July 25th: 17.13°C/16.25°C

July 26th: 17.14°C/16.25°C

July 27th: 17.11°C/16.26°C

July 28th: 17.07°C/16.27°C

--
July 29th: TBD

July 30th: TBD

July 31st: TBD

• 3 Days Left

Forecast for rest of month:

Model:     GEFS
Package:  2m Temp Anomaly
Region:    World
Hour:        120hrs

Um.. how is that for the rest of the month?

@parhizj fixing it

@parhizj fixed

@SirCryptomind Hmm now how do you go from data gridded in space and time to a single mean for the day's anomaly? Average all the colors in the box for each day, then average those? Then to figure out what the anomaly is relative to yesterday, do the same for yesterday's and take the difference.

@parhizj RGEM uses historical data to determine Anomaly. I've used this site for 10+ years and it has never done me wrong.

I think it predicted 1 hurricane incorrectly and that was the hurricane in 2021 that ended up hitting Maine, which is an anomoly in itself making it up that far without hitting the lower east coast.

@SirCryptomind The question I have is, is the anomaly data there referencing a change for a yearly baseline, or a daily baseline average or hourly baseline average? In other words, the anomaly data is the difference from what numbers?

If it's a single number like a yearly average it might be possible to convert from anomaly to absolute

@parhizj I'll ask my friend who uses this for his work for an accurate answer.

Hmm.. It's tricky since you can't just take a dumb RGB average. It is categorized RGB values. So you have to convert the RGB pixels for each pixel. Such a pain.

@parhizj Forget about using that chart as colors that is a dumb (but fun reverse engineering) idea.

Here is what happens when you use the actual data from GEFS ensemble (bias corrected, mean 2m temp) and average it for the globe and over each day. You get temperatures that are in the 8 C range roughly. I don't know why it is in this range and must be misunderstanding something about the GEFS data. Until I understand why I can't really rely on these numbers since I may be doing something completely wrong.

Here is the data anyway. Keep in mind the first day delta for the forecast is always 0.0 (since I have no data for previous day). With the exception of today, the trend for the delta does show a downward trend for the next 4 days after tomorrow. For today it shows a upward trend of 0.07 C (see 0726 forecast, I put both here for reference, but you can't really use 07-26 from the first forecast and 07-27 from the second's absolute values to do any validation and they only have last 2 days forecasts).

-- Processing ./gefs.20230726
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-26-2023:  8.496 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-27-2023:  8.565 (day over day delta:  0.070)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-28-2023:  8.568 (day over day delta:  0.003)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-29-2023:  8.280 (day over day delta: -0.288)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-30-2023:  8.160 (day over day delta: -0.120)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.113 (day over day delta: -0.047)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.224 (day over day delta:  0.111)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.393 (day over day delta:  0.170)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.540 (day over day delta:  0.147)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.674 (day over day delta:  0.134)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.687 (day over day delta:  0.013)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.655 (day over day delta: -0.032)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.576 (day over day delta: -0.080)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.529 (day over day delta: -0.047)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.489 (day over day delta: -0.040)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.473 (day over day delta: -0.017)
-- Processing ./gefs.20230727
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-27-2023:  8.645 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-28-2023:  8.488 (day over day delta: -0.157)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-29-2023:  8.281 (day over day delta: -0.206)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-30-2023:  8.251 (day over day delta: -0.031)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.267 (day over day delta:  0.017)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.490 (day over day delta:  0.223)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.772 (day over day delta:  0.282)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.794 (day over day delta:  0.022)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.743 (day over day delta: -0.052)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.768 (day over day delta:  0.026)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.781 (day over day delta:  0.013)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.760 (day over day delta: -0.022)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.687 (day over day delta: -0.073)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.584 (day over day delta: -0.103)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.487 (day over day delta: -0.097)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-11-2023:  8.474 (day over day delta: -0.013)

@parhizj Ha, that looks like what my friend would usually show me, the fancy gif is just for visual. The grain traders he works with would understand the data you have pumped out.

@SirCryptomind The prediction of a small raise for today was wrong from this analysis.
From yesterday's forecast it predicts a drop today (we'll see if this gets it right tomorrow).
For today's forecast (remember the delta for today is always 0), shows tomorrow's temperature will be cooler than today's temp (have to wait to the 30th to check that).

-- Processing ./gefs.20230728
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-28-2023:  8.510 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-29-2023:  8.186 (day over day delta: -0.324)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-30-2023:  8.294 (day over day delta:  0.108)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.341 (day over day delta:  0.047)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.402 (day over day delta:  0.061)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.405 (day over day delta:  0.004)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.399 (day over day delta: -0.007)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.415 (day over day delta:  0.017)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.562 (day over day delta:  0.146)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.723 (day over day delta:  0.161)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.771 (day over day delta:  0.049)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.735 (day over day delta: -0.036)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.643 (day over day delta: -0.092)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.515 (day over day delta: -0.128)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-11-2023:  8.450 (day over day delta: -0.065)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-12-2023:  8.398 (day over day delta: -0.052)

@parhizj

Got the dip yesterday correct.

Latest forecast shows an increase for July 30, and a decrease now for July 31. So if this is any good, today, July 28 and July 30 are the only remaining warming days

-- Processing ./gefs.20230729
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-29-2023:  8.247 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-30-2023:  8.273 (day over day delta:  0.027)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.259 (day over day delta: -0.014)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.312 (day over day delta:  0.053)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.342 (day over day delta:  0.030)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.420 (day over day delta:  0.077)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.441 (day over day delta:  0.021)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.572 (day over day delta:  0.131)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.612 (day over day delta:  0.040)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.571 (day over day delta: -0.041)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.503 (day over day delta: -0.069)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.434 (day over day delta: -0.069)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.347 (day over day delta: -0.087)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-11-2023:  8.271 (day over day delta: -0.076)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-12-2023:  8.235 (day over day delta: -0.036)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-13-2023:  8.216 (day over day delta: -0.019)

@parhizj Showed my friend your data and he said it is pretty good. He would not elaborate but it is his job so I think he isn't fully transparent so others do not know his exact math.

Just said "Hell, that is good use of public data"

👍

@SirCryptomind

-- Processing ./gefs.20230730
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-30-2023:  8.258 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.084 (day over day delta: -0.174)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.267 (day over day delta:  0.183)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.338 (day over day delta:  0.071)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.449 (day over day delta:  0.111)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.508 (day over day delta:  0.059)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.648 (day over day delta:  0.140)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.602 (day over day delta: -0.047)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.499 (day over day delta: -0.103)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.386 (day over day delta: -0.113)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.264 (day over day delta: -0.122)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.208 (day over day delta: -0.056)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-11-2023:  8.240 (day over day delta:  0.032)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-12-2023:  8.255 (day over day delta:  0.015)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-13-2023:  8.306 (day over day delta:  0.051)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-14-2023:  8.263 (day over day delta: -0.043)

The forecast from a couple days ago got the drop yesterday correct, and yesterday's forecast predicts an increase today. The forecast today predicts a drop tomorrow. Won't have enough validation to trust this data, so I can't use it still without understanding why the absolute temp is so far off.

The most recent forecast that made a prediction on yesterday got the temp rise correct (so it is now 3 for 4). This is not enough data but even so, yesterday's forecast has today as a cooling day relative to the previous day. Even though it's not useful for this question, I put the forecast for tomorrow also, showing a rise in temp.

-- Processing ./gefs.20230731
--   Processing 96 files...
Global 2m temp average (C) for 07-31-2023:  8.184 (day over day delta:  0.000)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-01-2023:  8.260 (day over day delta:  0.076)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-02-2023:  8.633 (day over day delta:  0.373)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-03-2023:  8.819 (day over day delta:  0.187)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-04-2023:  8.757 (day over day delta: -0.063)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-05-2023:  8.723 (day over day delta: -0.034)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-06-2023:  8.579 (day over day delta: -0.144)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-07-2023:  8.429 (day over day delta: -0.150)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-08-2023:  8.221 (day over day delta: -0.209)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-09-2023:  8.074 (day over day delta: -0.147)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-10-2023:  8.048 (day over day delta: -0.025)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-11-2023:  8.046 (day over day delta: -0.002)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-12-2023:  7.970 (day over day delta: -0.076)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-13-2023:  7.898 (day over day delta: -0.073)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-14-2023:  7.915 (day over day delta:  0.018)
Global 2m temp average (C) for 08-15-2023:  7.943 (day over day delta:  0.028)

-

@SirCryptomind This should be the hottest July ever recorded.

See this market:

Today certainly was the hottest day for me, personally. 😏

@jojomonsta Same here ; July 3rd-6th I only had Heat Advisory and Poor AQI. Today its Excessive Heat and Heat Advisory and Poor AQI, and tied local record high temp. for the individual day.

@SirCryptomind What do you think the emoji at the end of my message means?

@jojomonsta ya got me