Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2024?
25
187
450
2025
48%
chance

Resolves YES if there is an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or larger reported in https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m8-world.php

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According to Wikipedia, the largest earthquake by year has been 8 or higher in 52 or 53 (depending on whether the 1943 Ovalle earthquake counts) of the 87 years between 1937 and 2023

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