Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
119
1.1kṀ25k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES

Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly

Data source: Met Office Hadley Centre

resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.

Science
Climate
Global Warming
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ589
2Ṁ328
3Ṁ300
4Ṁ147
5Ṁ77

People are also trading

Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
4% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
58% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
46% chance
will 2030 be hotter than 2023?
77% chance
Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?
26% chance
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
95% chance
Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
2% chance
Will Earth's average yearly temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028?
19% chance
Will 2023-2027 be hotter than 2018-2022?
98% chance
Sort by:

Data is up 1.18 for 2024 vs 1.10 for 2023

Real probability seems higher than current market.

@AmmonLam could you add HadCET to the title so I can differentiate it in my list by data set? TY.

Excellent! TY!

IIRC, HadCET does not extrapolate over the poles, so this market is more likely to attract deniers/skeptics/non-alarmists.

reposted

Good market

People are also trading

Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
4% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
58% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
46% chance
will 2030 be hotter than 2023?
77% chance
Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?
26% chance
Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?
95% chance
Will we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
2% chance
Will Earth's average yearly temperature be 1.5 degrees by late 2028?
19% chance
Will 2023-2027 be hotter than 2018-2022?
98% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy