MANIFOLD
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
119
Ṁ1.1kṀ25k
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
YES

Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly

Data source: Met Office Hadley Centre

resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.

Market context
Science
Climate
Global Warming
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Data is up 1.18 for 2024 vs 1.10 for 2023

Real probability seems higher than current market.

@AmmonLam could you add HadCET to the title so I can differentiate it in my list by data set? TY.

Excellent! TY!

IIRC, HadCET does not extrapolate over the poles, so this market is more likely to attract deniers/skeptics/non-alarmists.

reposted

Good market

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