What will the average ENSO ONI be in the year 2024? (Will it be El Nino or La Nina?)
Basic
5
Ṁ494Mar 2
0.8%
>2.0 (Super El Niño)
0.8%
1.5 - 2.0 (Strong El Niño)
0.8%
1.0 - 1.5 (Moderate El Niño)
0.8%
0.5 - 1.0 (Weak El Niño)
90%
0 - 0.5 (Warm neutral)
2%
-0.5 - 0 (Cool neutral)
2%
-1.0 - -0.5 (Weak La Niña)
0.8%
-1.5 - -1.0 (Moderate La Niña)
0.8%
-2.0 - -1.5 (Strong La Niña)
0.8%
<-2.0 (Super Niña)
I will average the values on this page for each of the twelve 3 month periods in 2024 (DJF to NDJ): https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
See also this associated market specifically for peak hurricane season (ASO): https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith
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