What will the average ENSO ONI be in the year 2024? (Will it be El Nino or La Nina?)
5
290Ṁ1675resolved Feb 13
100%99.0%
0 - 0.5 (Warm neutral)
0.1%
>2.0 (Super El Niño)
0.1%
1.5 - 2.0 (Strong El Niño)
0.1%
1.0 - 1.5 (Moderate El Niño)
0.1%
0.5 - 1.0 (Weak El Niño)
0.1%
-0.5 - 0 (Cool neutral)
0.2%
-1.0 - -0.5 (Weak La Niña)
0.1%
-1.5 - -1.0 (Moderate La Niña)
0.1%
-2.0 - -1.5 (Strong La Niña)
0.1%
<-2.0 (Super Niña)
I will average the values on this page for each of the twelve 3 month periods in 2024 (DJF to NDJ): https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
See also this associated market specifically for peak hurricane season (ASO): https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
now has the data
2024 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5
Total = 4.2 average = 0.35
So can resolve as warm neutral 0 - 0.5
@SaviorofPlant Thanks