What will the average ENSO ONI be in the year 2024? (Will it be El Nino or La Nina?)

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Ṁ1675

Mar 2

0.1%

>2.0 (Super El Niño)

0.1%

1.5 - 2.0 (Strong El Niño)

0.1%

1.0 - 1.5 (Moderate El Niño)

0.1%

0.5 - 1.0 (Weak El Niño)

99%

0 - 0.5 (Warm neutral)

0.1%

-0.5 - 0 (Cool neutral)

0.2%

-1.0 - -0.5 (Weak La Niña)

0.1%

-1.5 - -1.0 (Moderate La Niña)

0.1%

-2.0 - -1.5 (Strong La Niña)

0.1%

<-2.0 (Super Niña)

I will average the values on this page for each of the twelve 3 month periods in 2024 (DJF to NDJ): https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

See also this associated market specifically for peak hurricane season (ASO): https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith

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#Science

#Climate

#️ Weather

#2024 Hurricane Season

#La Nina

#El Nino

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2024 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4
Adds to 4.7.
Largest negative seen is -2.0
Largest change from one month to next seems to be by 0.7
So result seems certain to be warm neutral. (even clearer with monthly values)

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