Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.
1,000People are also trading
Edit: It's fairly close, but using GISTEMP and my best estimates at the moment for the remainder of December using medium range ensembles, 2025 looks slightly higher (with GISTEMP being merely 0.01 C higher).
Ok I actually worked on the hadcrut data today and using an ERA5 mapping (using the same super ensemble for rest of December debiased, similar to how I handle gistemp) I find that 2025-2023 ~= -0.06 C. Examining the residuals for the linear model used for the mapping, this is far too large to be accounted for by the difference in datasets. As I have fairly high confidence in December's value, the only thing that could cause this to resolve yes is an error in my calculations, or a substantial revision in the 2025/2023 data in next month's release.
Edit:
for future reference:
2025 (1861-1890) = 1.4062228962435286
2023 (1861-1890) = 1.4655657883722222
2025 - 2023 = -0.05934289212869359
@MachiNi yeah =\, obviously, I regret my lazy bet yesterday! Using another dataset as a proxy for these questions was far too sketchy...
@parhizj I just bet against based on
https://climate.metoffice.cloud/formatted_data/gmt_HadCRUT5.csv
2023,1.46
2024,1.51
2025,1.40
which I assumed was up to October for 2025 and Nov and Dec looked cooler. However, given you are pretty close to these figures perhaps it includes estimates for Nov and Dec?
@ChristopherRandles Since the chart says it uses hadcrut data I refer to
(from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut5/data/HadCRUT.5.1.0.0/download.html) which includes up to november.
I fill in December 2025 using a method similar to what I use for GISTEMP from, the ERA5 data extended using the super ensemble after some adjustments for mean error, and then per month linear debiasing to map between the datasets. This yields a value of ~ 0.9215 C for December 2025 for the hadcrut5 dataset in their 1961-1990 baseline.
Berkeley Earth is saying 70% after January, though February has been relatively colder https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2025-temperature-update/