
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2023?
48
1kṀ74862026
54%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Sort by:
Berkeley Earth is saying 70% after January, though February has been relatively colder https://berkeleyearth.org/january-2025-temperature-update/
People are also trading
Related questions
Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2024?
36% chance
Will global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026 be lower than global greenhouse gas emissions in 2025?
56% chance
Will global carbon emissions decrease in 2025 compared to 2024 levels?
28% chance
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2025, according to Berkeley Earth?
62% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2025 exceed 2024?
7% chance
Will the average global temperature in 2026 exceed 2025?
58% chance
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record?
16% chance
Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?
46% chance
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record?
10% chance
will 2030 be hotter than 2023?
77% chance