This is part of a series of questions on the predictions from the last Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update from the World Meteorological Organization.

The chance of global near-surface temperature exceeding 1.5°C above preindustrial levels for at least one year between 2023 and 2027 is more likely than not (66%). It is unlikely (32%) that the five-year mean will exceed this threshold.

This question is about that second sentence, whether the mean over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5℃. I will base the resolution on data from the WMO, if available. Otherwise, I will base it on the most reliable measurements I can find.