Will La Niña develop in the equatorial pacific before 2024?
Basic
2
Ṁ60
Jan 16
70%
chance

3 month ENSO anomaly <0.5C below normal according to NOAA. Latest possible is Oct/Nov/Dec

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Re "<0.5C below normal according to NOAA"
What if the figure is -0.5? That, or I believe, even -.0451, which rounds to -0.5, would normally be considered La Nina conditions.

Display of -0.5 or lower at
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
would make more sense.

@cantankerous does not seem active. Perhaps get a mod to state what will happen after an opportunity for traders to make any comments?

@traders

@ChristopherRandles I mean it's a two trader abandoned market with barely any liquidity. I'm not sure what your goal here is and if it's worth the effort.

@Agh Maybe sketchy and I would bet if we knew the terms, but yes even at 4 traders it would be pretty small and abandoned. N/A'ing it for lack of clarity doesn't seem ideal and I would suggest it is a claim that should exist, people do try to forecast ENSO, even if it isn't very popular.

Having title and resolution terms matching seems a lot better than having them partially contradictory leading to uncertainty about which will take precedence for resolution.

@ChristopherRandles At that point it wouldn't it be easier for you to make your own market?

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