At the end of 2024, what Manifold market will have the most traders?
8
385Ṁ1265
resolved Jan 2
100%95%
Who will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
0.4%
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?
0.3%
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
0.5%
Will Biden be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
0.3%
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
0.3%
Why was Sam Altman fired?
0.3%
Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
0.3%
Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking?
0.3%
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
0.3%
In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
0.3%
In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
0.3%
When will Trump serve time?
1.7%Other

Resolves to the market with the most unique traders at the end of 2024 (in the Central Time Zone), or to equal percentages if multiple markets are tied for the most at that time. If I am unable to determine which market had the most at that time (e.g., two markets are extremely close, I don't look at the exact time, and I can't find any Manifold analytics saying which one was ahead), I will resolve to a percentage .

All market types are allowed, including bounties and polls (where the number of commenters and voters is considered to be the number of unique trades). It also doesn't matter if the market is closed or already resolved.

I may exclude a market if there is clear evidence that its trader count has been inflated by fake accounts, and it wouldn't have had the most otheise.

Here are links to the options in this market:

/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres

/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n

/jack/who-will-win-2024-us-presidential-e

/sophiawisdom/why-was-sam-altman-fired

/firstuserhere/will-openai-hint-at-or-claim-to-hav

/memestiny/will-andrew-tate-be-found-guilty-of

/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the

/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener

/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big

/MartinRandall/when-will-trump-be-imprisoned

For a shorter term version, see /PlasmaBallin/at-the-end-of-2023-what-manifold-ma

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Biden nom is only ahead of LK-99 by 54 traders, pretty plausible that LK-99 could surpass it before the year is out, given that Biden nom is already resolved.

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